[Marxism] IMF says: "Good Luck"

Mehmet Cagatay mehmetcagatayaydin at yahoo.com
Mon Nov 19 10:19:26 MST 2007

I just came across a particular paragraph in IMF’s "Financial System
Stability Assessment" (Country Report No. 07/361) on Turkey:  

• Macroeconomic volatility, especially because of the large current
account deficit. Turkey remains dependent on capital inflows and thus on
international investor sentiment. Moreover, continued efforts are still
needed to anchor inflation at low levels, and the stock of government debt
remains relatively high, albeit declining.


I thought that someone should translate these statements that bear some
concealed contradictions:

It is distressing that macroeconomic stability of Turkey is at the mercy
of the rationality of international investors. But, since the continuity
of current inflation rates are directly subjected to the decline of
exchange rates via capital inflows, intensification of this volatility is
 Good Luck!

All the arguments of economists to maintain the macroeconomic stability
are directed towards the question of ensuring the mental steadiness of
international investors. The major fear is "what if they suddenly go
insane one day?"

They like self-proclaimed "good" poker players, who believe that it is
impossible to win at a table full of loose-aggressive maniacs, because
there is always couple of players who are denying the odds and will
outdraw you in later betting rounds. Their motto is: "Aces never hold up"

But the real danger lies in the presence of players who play rationally
and who are counting the odds. They call when the odds are in their favor
and fold when they are against them. This is where you're really in need
of the interference of good luck.

Mehmet Çagatay

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