Causality

Ron Press anclondon at gn.apc.org
Fri Dec 16 00:02:07 MST 1994


Causality, probability, strange attractors,

What enamours me to the idea of Strange Attractors is that it goes further than
simple probability, and causality.

" But the whole picture is actually considerably simpler, for all it takes
is some version of an objective probabilistic causality. "

The maths of strange attractors indicates ,

1) Given a starting point and defining the path the system will proceed along that
path.

Causality. Cause- effect.

2) It will proceed to a sector (of phase space) . However it cannot be predicted as
to where exactly it will go. It cannot even be determined using the laws of
probability.

This is important since the usual laws of probability imply that if the experiment
is done more carefully or if one repeats it more often or perhaps one more
accurately determines the starting point then the resulting position or sector will
be more accurately determined. This is not so.

3) The system will end up in a particular position or sector. It will not however stay
there.


In political terms it seems to me to mean.

Economic and social pressures arising from the inability of capital to satisfy the
basic needs of the mass of the people set society on the path to a desire for
"socialism". Which it was thought would satisfy this need. The socialist revolution
in Germany and then in the USSR resulted. Followed by others. Each with its own
characteristics. ( In chaos terms a bifurcation)

The new systems set up as a result did not work satisfactorily. (Various and many
reasons) Some still survive.

The problem remains how to satisfy the needs of the people. A new path has been
embarked upon. Societies seem to be looking for nationalism to solve their
problems. Hence Bosnia, Chechen, Rwuanda...each with its own solutions.

They will not work. So the system passes from attractor to attractor.

Clearly life is far more complex but I believe looking at society as being modeled
by or similar to attractors and similar mathematical analogies we come to the
following conclusions.

a) There is no ultimate solution. There is no position or place where society will
find the ultimate solution to the problem of its needs.

b) It matters not how carefully we plan and analyse where we are now and how
we plan to get to where we want to be.

c) There is however a here and now which is unable to satisfy the needs of the
people "Capitalism". There is a future which will be better able to satisfy those
needs. " Socialism".

So just as we try to predict the weather and are partially successful we will go to
"Socialism" and be partially successful. If we understand the laws of nature more
clearly we will be able to proceed with less pain along the path to a better society.

My personal problems are.

A) I find the esoteric and erudite nature of the discussions on causality are taking
place on another planet.

B) How do we talk to each other so that we are intelligible.

C) How do we use the gifts bestowed upon us by our education and some will say
by God, to change society so that the needs of the people are satisfied to a greater
extent.

Bill Gates has his bread buttered on both sides only because the child in
Rwanda has no water let alone skimmed milk. There is no avoiding the inter-
connection. Brains we all have the ability and the desire to exploit others
is not given to us all.

        .




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