determinism vs. uncertainty

Lisa Rogers EQDOMAIN.EQWQ.LROGERS at email.state.ut.us
Mon Aug 28 14:08:43 MDT 1995



>>> <P8475423 at vmsuser.acsu.unsw.edu.au>  8/26/95, 11:31pm >>>
[snip] Predictive models are, by definition, impossible in a chaotic
system (sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and all that).
[snip] a tiny difference in initial conditions will, after a very
short time period, result in completely different time paths.
[snip]
after a very short period of time, you have no information about the
probable future path of the system.
In other words, true uncertainty is a necessary aspect of a chaotic
system.

But, the model is still deterministic, no?  Given the exact same
starting point again, it will duplicate its previous path, exactly.
Gleick tried to explain these distinctions, between deterministic and
predictable, etc, but I can't recall just how it goes, [and the
library made me turn the book in!]


Lisa R.



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