Economics and the weather

Tom Condit tomcondit at
Fri Jun 16 03:07:13 MDT 1995

This is a propos de nothin', but I thought people might find it

The other day Doug Henwood was doing a telephone appearance on
our local Pacifica radio station, and was explaining the
difficulty of doing long term economic forecasts.  Trying to
predict what the stock market would be doing five years from
today, he explained, would be like trying to predict what the
weather would be five years from today--we can talk about overall
trends, but there are too many variables for any precision.

"Oh, I don't know," one of the hosts said, "I can predict what
the weather will be five years from today.  It'll be foggy.  It's
always foggy this time of year."

It was 6:40 a.m., a time when the fog if any is still around.  I
was standing in the kitchen making coffee and looking out the
window at a clear and cloudless sky.  I went around to the street
side and looked out those windows.  Not even a trace of dew on
the car windshields.

A couple of days later, we had the wettest June day since 1888.

Score one for you, Doug!



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