sudden peace in the Balkans? (fwd)

Bryan A. Alexander bnalexan at umich.edu
Fri Sep 8 10:05:56 MDT 1995


OK, have listened to some more reports since typing this - the blurry
pseudorealtime of the net, eh? - and my report still seems kosher.
Networks are downplaying this, but the plan is actually very real.  Damn,
damn, damn.



Bryan Alexander
Department of English
University of Michigan
**********************

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Fri, 8 Sep 1995 11:57:19 -0400 (EDT)
From: Bryan A. Alexander <bnalexan at umich.edu>
To: managarm at aol.com, Tatiana Prentice Falk <tfalk at umich.edu>,
    Lee Allan Behlman <siang at umich.edu>,
    Robert James Fagerlund <robbo at umich.edu>,
    Miron Z Lukjan <lukjan at umich.edu>, rdonia at aol.com
Subject: sudden peace in the Balkans?

CNN has just announced that the Contact Group has wrested some sort of
agreement from Croatia, Bosnia, and the Serb coalition.  Features include:
every nation recognizes each other (including Yugoslav rec. of Bosnia and,
apparently, Bosnia rec of Serb Republic in Bosnia); some general
principles about human rights, freedom of movement; the Srbs get 49% of
BiH; Milosevic gets what he has of Slavonia, although "this issue remains
to be resolved by negotiations."  Tje US, France, Germany, UK, and even
Russia are in on this.  Much talk about the dead US reps on Mt.  Igman.
	Keep in mind: I'm typing this during a commercial break - so sorry
about typos -
	What's good about his?  Could mean peace.  It's possible that the
status quo will shift into a working peace.  After all, aside from the
downsizing of Srb control from 70 to 49%, this is pretty much the status
quo.
	But - but -
	1) no mention made of disarming, prisoner exchanges, anything
about the practical - or even abstract - details about ending a war
	2) Holbrooke insisted several times that what was being done to
Bosnia was not in fact a partition.  Yet the creation of two different
nations within Bosnia sounds an awful lot like partition.
	3) No mention of war crimes.  Aside from the moral and legal
issues here, there's the problem of how folks charges with war crimes are
supposed to be living in the same, unpartitioned (see 2) nation.
	4) No discussion of the fate of the Croatia-Bosnia federation.
	5) The actual designation of which BiH territory goes to which
nation (but not partitioned country?!?!) is left to future negotiations.
Here is one big seed for immediate war.
	6) Above all, if this is the plan of a working end to the War for
Yugoslav Succession, it represents a large validation of Milosevic's
strategy for conquest.  He walks away with a big chunk of Slavonia and
about half of Bosnia.  His schemes for invasion, slaughter, genocide,
broad-spectrum brutality are largely accepted by the international
community as represented by the Contact Group.  If this be so, let no
mercy fall on the heads of each and every diplomat and politician
involved.
	CNN is back - more anon - please respond with additional info as
you see it, and clarifications/corrections -



Bryan Alexander
Department of English
University of Michigan
**********************




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