What is Peronism?

crebello crebello at SPAMantares.com.br
Sun Jun 4 11:47:08 MDT 2000

Louis wrote:

> In 1943 and 1944 the world Trotskyist movement expected the end of WWII to
> usher in the same types of revolutionary cataclysms as WWI. The
> International Resolution under consideration by the FI stated categorically
> that the allies would impose military dictatorships. It considered American
> capitalism to have begun an "absolute decline" in 1929. This decadent
> system said the resolution "has no programme for Europe other than its
> further dismemberment and degradation, and the propping up of the
> capitalist system with American bayonets".

It may be that I'm a Trotsky buff, but I do not think that one should blame
Trotsky himself on that. In fact, nobody had any idea during WWII and during its
immediate aftermath - in conditions of widespreas misery, devastation and squalor
-  that Socialist Revolution might not be in the immediate agenda, given the fact
that at the beggining, the temptation to impose on W Europe - above all Germany -
a kind of pillaging similar to the pillage intended after WWI, thorugh reparations
payments - was very great, as proved by the existence of schemes like the
Morgenthau plan, and all kinds of other schemes - that, according to my little
reading on the subject, seem to originate in Churchill's entourage - that
proposed, among other things, slave labour of German POWs and German civilians as
reparations (which would made, as stated by Keynes in a memorandum, make Germany
the bedseed for social revolution in Europe).

The fact that J.M. Keynes (who died in 1946, deep depressed by the failure of the
Bancor proposal in Bretton Woods and exhausted after a trip to the US over a big
American loan) and, above all, General Marshall eventually had their way about
American financing of a huge scheme of economic reconstruction and bolstering of
macroeconomic Effective Demand was *not* something that must have happened anyway,
and Trotsky's mistake was only that, having been murdered in 1940, he could not
forsee the kind of bourgeois reaction to the crisis that would develop as a
reaction to the fact that Uncle Joe would emerge as the greatest war-hero of the
war (remember that Trotsky considered, as early as in _The Revolution Betrayed_,
that Stalin would *lose* WWII, thereby enabling the Left Opposition to make a
comeback). The persistence of the original scheme in the head of his followers, of
course, after it had lost any value as a "research hypothesis", of course,  was
other thing...

Carlos Rebello

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