Mark's environmentsal panic attack

Jose G. Perez jgperez at SPAMnetzero.net
Fri Jun 9 21:45:20 MDT 2000


>>You go on to talk about some colling apparebntly observed in the
troposphere. The on-going discussion which the Nasa page mentions have
reached a consensus that troposphere colling is most likely another
indicator of global warming: more heat is trapped at lower levels. There's
no comfort there, on the contrary.<<

I don't know if I misspoke, but to be clear. What the hypothesized "simple"
global warming mechanism would require is warming of the LOWER layers of the
atmosphere. Some models suggest the stratosphere (higher layers) should be
cooler as a result; other scientists believe the operative factor in the
stratosphere is the ozone layer. The stratosphere has cooled somewhat; the
lower layers of the atmosphere show no clear trend except fairly close
coupling with the El Niño/La Niña oscillation.

On Gulf Stream: some people are working on modeling the hypothesis you
describe. So far the model is unsuccessful, it oscillates,  soon after the
Gulf Stream is shut down, within a few years, the new glaciation and cooling
tends to restart it. It is I'm told a very primitive model, not at all ready
for prime time yet.

The big question connected with this is whether a growth of glaciers in the
north would be enough to tip the world into another ice age.

José


----- Original Message -----
From: "Mark Jones" <jones118 at lineone.net>
To: "marxism at lists. panix. com" <marxism at lists.panix.com>
Sent: Friday, June 09, 2000 7:10 AM
Subject: FW: Mark's environmentsal panic attack



Jose wrote:


> > But are these two predictions actually even compatible with
> each other? If
> > you shut down one of the great conveyor belts of heat from the
> tropics to
> > much higher latitudes, wouldn't you instead get a significantly colder
> > climate? Isn't that precisely the mechanism being studied for "climate
> > flipping" and a new ice age?

The mechanism seems to be this: as polar ice melts this reduces ice albedo,
ie reflectivity, and warms up the water still more. Ice is freshwater and
does not sink; as the volume of freshwater increases the circulation of salt
water brought north by the Gulf Stream on the ocean floor, stops, because
the relatively warmer but denser salt water no longer can push through the
huge volumes of freshwater on the surface. The Gulf Stream deflects south
west and ends up somehwre near Gibraltar instead of in the far north where
it's supposed to be. This is how climate-flipping works: hot and cold cycles
osciallarte and the whole system gets increasingly unstable until it finally
flips into another mode. Thus, if the Gulf Stream gets switched off, more
snow will fall over Europe, temperatures will fall and the albedo effect be
increased; no more warm water will penetrate the Arctic Ocean which may
begin to glaciate again with dramatic suddenness, and this time without the
presence of the Gulf Stream to moderate the glaciation process.

You go on to talk about some colling apparebntly observed in the
troposphere. The on-going discussion which the Nasa page mentions have
reached a consensus that troposphere colling is most likely another
indicator of global warming: more heat is trapped at lower levels. There's
no comfort there, on the contrary.

Mark




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