FW: June14th Global Change Seminar: "Climate Warming of the 20th Century in the Context of Historical and Geological Records of Past Climate Changes" (fwd)

Mark Jones jones118 at SPAMlineone.net
Tue Jun 13 02:38:22 MDT 2000


This ought reasonably to settle any argument about what Dr Crowley
thinks or doesn't think in the year 2000 . Jose has been arguing that
Crowley thinks it's 'not certain' there is global warming. Here Crowley
 says:

>The increase in global temperatures resulting from greenhouse-induced
>warming in the next century will likely exceed considerably, any climate
>changes over the last 1000 years.  In fact, the global warming estimated
>from "Business As Usual" projections (i.e., from the Intergovernmental
>Panel on Climate Change reports) will exceed globally-averaged surface
>temperatures from the last interglacial period -- the warmest time in the
>last 400,000 years.

Dr. Thomas Crowley is a Professor of Oceanography at Texas A&M University.
His main research field is climate dynamics.


Mark Jones
http://www.egroups.com/group/CrashList


-----Original Message-----
From: clim-econ-owner at csf.colorado.edu
[mailto:clim-econ-owner at csf.colorado.edu] On Behalf Of Kathleen Miller
Sent: 12 June 2000 23:11
To: clim econ
Subject: Fwd: June14th Global Change Seminar: "Climate Warming of the
20th Century in the Context of Historical and Geological Records of Past
Climate Changes" (fwd)


***************************************
---------- Forwarded message ----------
****************************************
Date: Mon, 12 Jun 2000 11:24:54 -0400
From: USGCRP Admin Assistant <mitchell at usgcrp.gov>
To: mitchell at earth.usgcrp.gov
Subject: Fwd: June14th Global Change Seminar: "Climate Warming of the 20th
Century in the Context of Historical and Geological Records of Past
Climate Changes"

>X-Sender: tsocci at earth.usgcrp.gov
>Mime-Version: 1.0
>Date: Fri, 9 Jun 2000 12:32:45 -0400
>To: mitchell at usgcrp.gov (Carla Mitchell)
>From: Tony Socci <tsocci at usgcrp.gov>
>Subject: June14th Global Change Seminar: "Climate Warming of the 20th
> Century in the Context of Historical and Geological Records of Past
> Climate Changes"
>Status:
>
>         U.S. Global Change Research Program Seminar Series
>
>
>Climate Warming of the 20th Century in the Context of Historical and
>               Geological Records of Past Climate Changes
>
>
>How does the climate warming of the 20th Century compare to the historical
>records of climate change spanning the last 1000 years?  Is the climate
>warming of the late 20th Century unique relative to the last 1000 years or
>more?  Based on the accumulated evidence, is the climate warming of the
>20th Century more likely to be attributable to fluctuations in solar
>radiation, volcanic activity, and/or natural climate variability, or to the
>accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, or some combination of
>all of these factors?  Which of these factors, or combination of factors,
>is likely to dominate the future, based on past, present and anticipated
>trends?
>
>
>                                    Public Invited
>
>
>                 Wednesday, June 14, 2000, 3:30-4:45 PM
>                    Dirksen Senate Office Bldg., Room G-11
>                                    Washington, DC
>
>
>                                Reception Following
>
>
>Introduction:
>
>Dr. Margaret Leinen, Assistant Director, Dirctectorate  for Geosciences,
>National Science Foundation, Arlington, VA
>
>Speaker:
>
>Dr. Thomas J. Crowley, Department of Oceanography, Texas A & M University,
>College Station, TX
>
>
>
>           What is the Past Telling Us About the Present?
>
>Recent  progress in synthesizing various proxy records of past climates
>(e.g., as seen from ice cores, tree rings, etc.) enable placement of the
>20th century  climate  warming within a longer-term perspective.  For
>example, reconstructions of past climates in the Northern Hemisphere
>indicate that the Middle Ages were relatively mild and that a significantly
>colder period occurred during the peak of the Little Ice Age (approximately
>1580-1880).  There has been considerable question however, about the
>relative magnitude of Medieval warmth relative to the observed global
>warming of the 20th Century.  Despite clear evidence from individual
>records, of occasional episodes of regional-scale climate warming having
>been greater than the present globally-averaged warming, three different
>composite reconstructions of Northern hemisphere climate indicate that, at
>most, peak Medieval warmth was comparable to the mid-20th Century warm
>period.  This result occurs because the timing of Medieval warmth is not
>the same in all places.  In terms of magnitude and duration, the late 20th
>century warming is unique in at least the last 1000 years.
>
>Further work has enabled testing of various mechanisms of climate change
>operating on decadal to centennial time scales.  Recent results indicate
>that much of the variability over the last 1000 years, prior to the rise in
>anthropogenic  emissions of greenhouse gases (beginning in about 1850), can
>be attributed to pulses of volcanism or changes in the output of the sun's
>energy.  Neither of these mechanisms, nor natural climate variability in
>the ocean-atmosphere system, can explain the late 20th century rise in the
>globally-averaged surface temperature.  The latter increase is however,
>consistent with projections of climate warming resulting from the buildup
>of greenhouse gases.
>
>The increase in global temperatures resulting from greenhouse-induced
>warming in the next century will likely exceed considerably, any climate
>changes over the last 1000 years.  In fact, the global warming estimated
>from "Business As Usual" projections (i.e., from the Intergovernmental
>Panel on Climate Change reports) will exceed globally-averaged surface
>temperatures from the last interglacial period -- the warmest time in the
>last 400,000 years.
>
>
>                                               Biography
>
>Dr. Thomas Crowley is a Professor of Oceanography at Texas A&M University.
>Prior to this, he held a number of positions in government, universities,
>and the private sector.  In particular, he was an assistant professor at
>the University of Missouri-St. Louis, program director in Climate Dynamics
>at the National Science Foundation, National Research Council Fellow at
>NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and Senior Scientist with the Applied
>Research Corporation.
>
>Dr. Crowley's principle interest and research expertise lies in the study
>of past climates (paleoclimatology), using both observations and climate
>models.  More specifically, his special interest lies in framing recent and
>future projected climate change within the perspective of past climate
>variations.  He has also co-authored approximately 100 peer-reviewed,
>scientific papers and a widely read textbook on paleoclimatology.
>Dr. Thomas Crowley received his Ph.D. in Geology from Brown University,
>Rhode Island, in 1976.
>
>
>The Next Seminar  is tentatively scheduled for July 27, 2000
>
>
>Planned Topic: Land Use and Land Cover Changes and the Movement and Storage
>of Carbon: Results of the New IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
>Change) Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry
>
>
>For more information please  contact:
>
>Anthony D. Socci, Ph.D., USGCRP Program Office
>400 Virginia Ave., SW, Suite 750
>Washington, DC 20024
>Telephone: (202) 314-2235; Fax: (202) 488-8681
>E-Mail: TSOCCI at USGCRP.GOV
>
>Additional information on the U.S. Global Change Research Program and this
>Seminar Series is available on the USGCRP Home Page at
>http://www.usgcrp.gov. A complete archive of seminar summaries can also be
>found at this site. Normally these seminars are held on the second Monday
>of each month.
>
Carla Mitchell
United States Global Change Research Program
400 Virginia Avenue, SW - Suite 750
Washington, DC 20024
(202)488-8630 (p)
(202)488-8676 (f)
mitchell at usgcrp.gov
http://www.usgcrp.gov







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