"We used 10 times as much energy in the 20th century as inthe 1,000 previous years"
Charles Brown
CharlesB at SPAMCNCL.ci.detroit.mi.us
Tue Jun 27 10:20:50 MDT 2000
Mark,
Isn't this arithmetic of exponentiality pretty much the same as that of compounded
interest or compounded GDP growth ?
Charles
>>> jones118 at lineone.net 06/26/00 03:21PM >>>
TABLE I
Lifetimes of non-renewable resources for different rates of growth of
consumption. Except for the left column, all numbers are lifetimes in years.
0 % 10 30 100 300 1000 3000 10,000
1 % 9.5 26 69 139 240 343 462
2 % 9.1 24 55 97 152 206 265
3 % 8.7 21 46 77 115 150 190
4 % 8.4 20 40 64 93 120 150
5 % 8.1 18 36 56 79 100 124
6 % 7.8 17 32 49 69 87 107
7 % 7.6 16 30 44 61 77 94
8 % 7.3 15 28 40 55 69 84
9 % 7.1 15 26 37 50 62 76
10 % 6.9 14 24 34 46 57 69
Example 1. If a resource would last 300 years at present rates of
consumption, then it would last 49 years if the rate of consumption grew 6
% per year.
Example 2. If a resource would last 18 years at 5 % annual growth in
the rate of consumption, then it would last 30 years at present rates of
consumption. (0 % growth)
Example 3. If a resource would last 55 years at 8 % annual growth in the
rate of consumption, then it would last 115 years at 3 % annual growth
rate.
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