China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to Reunite Taiwan

Henry C.K. Liu hliu at SPAMmindspring.com
Mon May 1 00:03:15 MDT 2000


Jose,

I do not have any information that is not in the press.  But there were several
press reports of PLA strategy on  Taiwan invasion in recent weeks.  The key is
to disable the Taiwanese air support with missiles.  An invasion force of
500,000 will cross the strait in 10,000 small boats.  The trip will take 8
hours.  The dispersed force will be difficiult for the Taiwan defense to stop.
Once landed, it is expected that the Taiwanese army will not have the will to
fight.  There are uncertainties about US intervention.  No US politician has
said the US will defend Taiwan, only that the US will help Taiwan defend itself.

The stakes are very high for Beijing and i is prepared to bear a high cost to
recover Taiwan.  One school of thought is that the US wll not risk a war with
China over Taiwan.  Another takes the position that even if the US intervenes,
the PLA can handle it.

To win a war, will power is the most important, not technology. At any rate, we
do have to wait long to find out. Only 20 more days. If Taiwan moves towards
independence, war is unavoidable.

Henry

"Jose G. Perez" wrote:

> Henry,
>
>     This report seems so outlandishly extraordinary that I'm forced to ask
> whether it could possibly be accurate.
>
>     What it would take to reunify Taiwan by force would not just be
> missiles, unless these were nuclear, but a massive sea/air invasion. I
> discount the use of nuclear weapons in these circumstances, it would be a
> political blunder of such colossal magnitude that I can't imagine the
> Chinese leadership considering this for a second.
>
>     As for an invasion, does the PLA have this capacity? Not just troop
> transports, but escort vessels, etc. etc. I assume the Taiwanese have shore
> defenses and that one must assume stiff resistance and very heavy casualties
> on the PLA side. Also, this assumes that China can establish control of the
> strait and of the air very quickly. That's not a realistic proposition if
> the U.S. intervenes on Taiwan's side, is it? And the U.S. almost certainly
> would, and very quickly as it has tremendous amounts of military assets in
> the region.
>
>     Also, does China have the sea and air lift capability to supply an army
> in the field?
>
>     As to completely destroying an opponent's military capability with
> conventional air and rocketry, I think all experience shows that, assuming
> Taiwan has an o.k. military, this is almost certainly unlikely to happen in
> 24 days, never mind 24 hours. I should think that at most China could launch
> a few hundred missiles in that time.
>
>     And if the idea is that a "spanking" would make Taiwan yield, I think
> that's an extremely iffy proposition.
>
> José
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu at mindspring.com>
> To: <marxism at lists.panix.com>
> Sent: Sunday, April 30, 2000 9:48 PM
> Subject: China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to
> Reunite Taiwan
>
> > A Hong Kong Chinese language newspaper (Ming Pao) reports that China has
> > notified the US of its intention to use military force to reunite Taiwan
> > if the inauguration speech of the new Taiwan president, Chen Shu-bian,
> > scheduled for May 20, fails to incorporate an officialacceptance of the
> > "one China" principle to reject any moves toward independence.
> > The report states that the PLA is prepared for the eventuality of US
> > forces intereventing in the conflict over Taiwan.  Anti-US sentiment
> > from the bombing of the Chinese embassy has not subsided as the
> > anniversarry of the incident approaches.
> >
> > The PLA is confident that its missiles can neutralize all military
> > capabiities on Taiwan within 24 hours. The concern is with US
> > intervention which will prolong the conflict and incur high cost.  PLA
> > officials are reported to be fully prepared for the contingency.
> >
> > Henry C.K. Liu
> >
> >
>
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