China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to Reunite Taiwan

David Heith-Stade dhs15 at SPAMhotmail.com
Mon May 1 10:49:47 MDT 2000


Yes, but the USA have a tendency to stick it's nose in thing it has nothing
to do with.


>From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu at mindspring.com>
>Reply-To: marxism at lists.panix.com
>To: marxism at lists.panix.com
>Subject: Re: China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to
>Reunite Taiwan
>Date: Mon, 01 May 2000 01:52:09 -0400
>
>Jose,
>
>I do not have any information that is not in the press.  But there were
>several
>press reports of PLA strategy on  Taiwan invasion in recent weeks.  The key
>is
>to disable the Taiwanese air support with missiles.  An invasion force of
>500,000 will cross the strait in 10,000 small boats.  The trip will take 8
>hours.  The dispersed force will be difficiult for the Taiwan defense to
>stop.
>Once landed, it is expected that the Taiwanese army will not have the will
>to
>fight.  There are uncertainties about US intervention.  No US politician
>has
>said the US will defend Taiwan, only that the US will help Taiwan defend
>itself.
>
>The stakes are very high for Beijing and i is prepared to bear a high cost
>to
>recover Taiwan.  One school of thought is that the US wll not risk a war
>with
>China over Taiwan.  Another takes the position that even if the US
>intervenes,
>the PLA can handle it.
>
>To win a war, will power is the most important, not technology. At any
>rate, we
>do have to wait long to find out. Only 20 more days. If Taiwan moves
>towards
>independence, war is unavoidable.
>
>Henry
>
>"Jose G. Perez" wrote:
>
> > Henry,
> >
> >     This report seems so outlandishly extraordinary that I'm forced to
>ask
> > whether it could possibly be accurate.
> >
> >     What it would take to reunify Taiwan by force would not just be
> > missiles, unless these were nuclear, but a massive sea/air invasion. I
> > discount the use of nuclear weapons in these circumstances, it would be
>a
> > political blunder of such colossal magnitude that I can't imagine the
> > Chinese leadership considering this for a second.
> >
> >     As for an invasion, does the PLA have this capacity? Not just troop
> > transports, but escort vessels, etc. etc. I assume the Taiwanese have
>shore
> > defenses and that one must assume stiff resistance and very heavy
>casualties
> > on the PLA side. Also, this assumes that China can establish control of
>the
> > strait and of the air very quickly. That's not a realistic proposition
>if
> > the U.S. intervenes on Taiwan's side, is it? And the U.S. almost
>certainly
> > would, and very quickly as it has tremendous amounts of military assets
>in
> > the region.
> >
> >     Also, does China have the sea and air lift capability to supply an
>army
> > in the field?
> >
> >     As to completely destroying an opponent's military capability with
> > conventional air and rocketry, I think all experience shows that,
>assuming
> > Taiwan has an o.k. military, this is almost certainly unlikely to happen
>in
> > 24 days, never mind 24 hours. I should think that at most China could
>launch
> > a few hundred missiles in that time.
> >
> >     And if the idea is that a "spanking" would make Taiwan yield, I
>think
> > that's an extremely iffy proposition.
> >
> > José
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu at mindspring.com>
> > To: <marxism at lists.panix.com>
> > Sent: Sunday, April 30, 2000 9:48 PM
> > Subject: China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to
> > Reunite Taiwan
> >
> > > A Hong Kong Chinese language newspaper (Ming Pao) reports that China
>has
> > > notified the US of its intention to use military force to reunite
>Taiwan
> > > if the inauguration speech of the new Taiwan president, Chen Shu-bian,
> > > scheduled for May 20, fails to incorporate an officialacceptance of
>the
> > > "one China" principle to reject any moves toward independence.
> > > The report states that the PLA is prepared for the eventuality of US
> > > forces intereventing in the conflict over Taiwan.  Anti-US sentiment
> > > from the bombing of the Chinese embassy has not subsided as the
> > > anniversarry of the incident approaches.
> > >
> > > The PLA is confident that its missiles can neutralize all military
> > > capabiities on Taiwan within 24 hours. The concern is with US
> > > intervention which will prolong the conflict and incur high cost.  PLA
> > > officials are reported to be fully prepared for the contingency.
> > >
> > > Henry C.K. Liu
> > >
> > >
> >
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