China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to Reunite Taiwan

Jose G. Perez jgperez at SPAMnetzero.net
Mon May 1 19:52:34 MDT 2000


Well, my gut tells me this is an adventure, unless people are REALLY SURE
the Taiwan army won't fight. If they do, a dispersed, disorganized PLA force
will be very vulnerable to a Taiwanese army with okay communications and
mobility.

As for the U.S. only committed to "helping the Taiwanese defend themselves"
that's the same thing they said in Vietnam and Korea. If Taiwanese fold, no
problem. If they don't????

If China launches such an attack, it will be presented in American media  as
an unprovoked invasion of an issue that's been pending for a half century
and there was no reason to resolve now, and I think that line will convince
the big majority of the population.

Moreover, U.S.marines may greet PLA troops on the beaches. The obvious
countermove to an open PLA threat is to schedule a month of exercises in the
straits.

José

----- Original Message -----
From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu at mindspring.com>
To: <marxism at lists.panix.com>
Sent: Monday, May 01, 2000 1:52 AM
Subject: Re: China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to
Reunite Taiwan


> Jose,
>
> I do not have any information that is not in the press.  But there were
several
> press reports of PLA strategy on  Taiwan invasion in recent weeks.  The
key is
> to disable the Taiwanese air support with missiles.  An invasion force of
> 500,000 will cross the strait in 10,000 small boats.  The trip will take 8
> hours.  The dispersed force will be difficiult for the Taiwan defense to
stop.
> Once landed, it is expected that the Taiwanese army will not have the will
to
> fight.  There are uncertainties about US intervention.  No US politician
has
> said the US will defend Taiwan, only that the US will help Taiwan defend
itself.
>
> The stakes are very high for Beijing and i is prepared to bear a high cost
to
> recover Taiwan.  One school of thought is that the US wll not risk a war
with
> China over Taiwan.  Another takes the position that even if the US
intervenes,
> the PLA can handle it.
>
> To win a war, will power is the most important, not technology. At any
rate, we
> do have to wait long to find out. Only 20 more days. If Taiwan moves
towards
> independence, war is unavoidable.
>
> Henry
>
> "Jose G. Perez" wrote:
>
> > Henry,
> >
> >     This report seems so outlandishly extraordinary that I'm forced to
ask
> > whether it could possibly be accurate.
> >
> >     What it would take to reunify Taiwan by force would not just be
> > missiles, unless these were nuclear, but a massive sea/air invasion. I
> > discount the use of nuclear weapons in these circumstances, it would be
a
> > political blunder of such colossal magnitude that I can't imagine the
> > Chinese leadership considering this for a second.
> >
> >     As for an invasion, does the PLA have this capacity? Not just troop
> > transports, but escort vessels, etc. etc. I assume the Taiwanese have
shore
> > defenses and that one must assume stiff resistance and very heavy
casualties
> > on the PLA side. Also, this assumes that China can establish control of
the
> > strait and of the air very quickly. That's not a realistic proposition
if
> > the U.S. intervenes on Taiwan's side, is it? And the U.S. almost
certainly
> > would, and very quickly as it has tremendous amounts of military assets
in
> > the region.
> >
> >     Also, does China have the sea and air lift capability to supply an
army
> > in the field?
> >
> >     As to completely destroying an opponent's military capability with
> > conventional air and rocketry, I think all experience shows that,
assuming
> > Taiwan has an o.k. military, this is almost certainly unlikely to happen
in
> > 24 days, never mind 24 hours. I should think that at most China could
launch
> > a few hundred missiles in that time.
> >
> >     And if the idea is that a "spanking" would make Taiwan yield, I
think
> > that's an extremely iffy proposition.
> >
> > José
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Henry C.K. Liu" <hliu at mindspring.com>
> > To: <marxism at lists.panix.com>
> > Sent: Sunday, April 30, 2000 9:48 PM
> > Subject: China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to
> > Reunite Taiwan
> >
> > > A Hong Kong Chinese language newspaper (Ming Pao) reports that China
has
> > > notified the US of its intention to use military force to reunite
Taiwan
> > > if the inauguration speech of the new Taiwan president, Chen Shu-bian,
> > > scheduled for May 20, fails to incorporate an officialacceptance of
the
> > > "one China" principle to reject any moves toward independence.
> > > The report states that the PLA is prepared for the eventuality of US
> > > forces intereventing in the conflict over Taiwan.  Anti-US sentiment
> > > from the bombing of the Chinese embassy has not subsided as the
> > > anniversarry of the incident approaches.
> > >
> > > The PLA is confident that its missiles can neutralize all military
> > > capabiities on Taiwan within 24 hours. The concern is with US
> > > intervention which will prolong the conflict and incur high cost.  PLA
> > > officials are reported to be fully prepared for the contingency.
> > >
> > > Henry C.K. Liu
> > >
> > >
> >
> > _____________________________________________
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