China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to Reunite Taiwan

Henry C.K. Liu hliu at
Mon May 1 21:41:25 MDT 2000

As I said, I do not have privileged information on the military strength of any
of the three sides.  But the KMT lost once 5 decades ago despite state of the
art US supplied equipment. I have posted on this list on the subject of the
reunification of Taiwan.
If the US intervenes, it will surely involve US bases in Japan.  The Chinese
press has been full of reports that China has decided that the sole reason for
the separation of Taiwan from China is US policy.  If force is the only option,
than China would opt for earlier rather than later use of force. If the US
intervenes,  the conflict will not remain localized and US casualty will be
high.  The cost to China will be extremely high, but the penalty for Taiwan
independence will be higher.  The CPC cannot survive it.

My personal view is that the US will not intervene. But if it does, China will
prevail just the same.  It is not advanturism.  It is national survival.  China
is prepared to sacrifice 20 million lives for this. Is the US prepared to
sacrifice 500,000 lives?
China is not Yugoslavia. There are voices in the Pentagon who also reflect this

Both Beijing and Taiwan are using their declaration of a willingness to fight as
a deterrent.  Washington is being hawkish toward Beijing as a deterrent, but
being dovish toward Taiwan to discourage Taiwanese advanturism.
Anyway, we will know after May 20.

Henry C.K. Liu

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