China Reportedly Notified US On Its Intention to Use Force to Reunite Taiwan

Henry C.K. Liu hliu at SPAMmindspring.com
Tue May 2 08:45:10 MDT 2000


History has shown in several big battles between the CPC and the KMT that the
KMT armiy did not fight - Manuchuria, Peking, the crossing of the Yangtse and
Shanghai.  Several divisions defected with the genreals and staff to the CPC.
There were recent Pentagon reports that hte Taiwanese military is less than
well trained in either technical skill or military doctrine to fully exploit in
current available military technology. With the policy of One Country, Two
System, the conflict would be centered on nationalism, not socio-economic
ideology, further reducing the Taiwanese army's incentive to resist.  The
Taiwan military has always been against Taiwan independence and there were
reports that the army was resistent to swearing loyalty to the new president
and his independence oriented DDP.  Remeber, Zhou Enlai served as Deputy
Political Commissar for the Whampao Military Academy in the 1920s, the West
Point of China which trained most of KMT's generals. Without US interference,
the battle for Taiwan will be over within a week.

The key lies in Washington.  If Washington backs down, Taiwan will yield.  If
Washington persists in its policy of supporting splittism in China in the name
of democracy, war will result.  And it will dragged in Japan, and possibly the
two Koreas and Russia.  China  will move soon because it has concluded
correctly that time is not on its side.  If the US adopted a no-causulty
tactic, its intervention would not be effective.  If the US send in troops to
Taiwan, it cannot avoid high casualty.  And the conflict will take on a global
character and also an ideological character. If the US hits the mainland, then
all hell will break lose.   The techological gap between the US and China is
still huge, but it is narrower than it was during the Korea War. And the US did
not prevail in Korea.

Henry C.K. Liu

Henry C.K. Liu

Alan Bradley wrote:

> > From: "Jose G. Perez"
> > Well, my gut tells me this is an adventure, unless people are REALLY SURE
> > the Taiwan army won't fight. If they do, a dispersed, disorganized PLA
> > force will be very vulnerable to a Taiwanese army with okay
> > communications and mobility.
>
> It would be completely insane to assume that the Taiwanese army wouldn't
> fight.
>
> > If China launches such an attack, it will be presented in American media
> > as an unprovoked invasion of an issue that's been pending for a half
> > century and there was no reason to resolve now, and I think that line
> > will convince the big majority of the population.
>
> It would be interesting to see what Australia would do.  Sections of the
> Australian state apparatus might want to support the US, but I suspect that
> their bosses might be less keen.  This would give us a chance to get the
> working class into action.
>
> Australian capital is more dependent on "stability" in Asia than US
> capital.  It can't afford to get China offside, any more than it can afford
> to really alienate Indonesia.  On the other hand, the habits of imperial
> alliance are hard to break.
>
> In any case, this is probably just an exercise in sabre-rattling.
>
> Alan Bradley
> alanb at elf.brisnet.org.au






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