To Henry was Re: China Prepares to Use Force on Taiwan

Gary MacLennan g.maclennan at SPAMqut.edu.au
Thu May 18 18:02:15 MDT 2000


Henry,

This is an interesting report.  What do you think though?  I have
difficulty in believing that China will launch an invasion. Why now?

Questions like that apart the relationship between the invasion and the
reform policy is complex is it not?  Are the anti-reformers
pro-invasion?  Is this a tactic to destroy the reform and the WTO package?
Surely that will be the outcome of an attack on Taiwan.  Jiang must feel
trapped between the rhetoric of official policy and his reform
inclinations. This report would suggest that he is desperately trying to
hold back the generals while he looks for a rescue package from Taiwan
courtesy of the USA.

What the military relevance of Kossovo & Iraq has is beyond me.  the
Americans are reluctant to commit ground troops in a situation where they
might have to actually fight. Such is the quality of their army.  The PLA
though would use numbers to overwhelm the enemy.

regards

Gary





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