To Henry was Re: China Prepares to Use Force on Taiwan

ÁÎ×Ó¹â Henry C.K.Liu ¹ù¤l¥ú hliu at SPAMmindspring.com
Fri May 19 08:39:28 MDT 2000




There is no doubt in my mind that if Taiwan continues on he path to
independence or to postpone reunification to a gradual and lengthy process,
with no near-term target date, the Beijing will solve the problem by force.

The question then remains when and how and it will be based on Chinese
military consideration on which I have no information beyond press
speculation.

WTO and reform inside China is no deterrent against using force on Taiwan.  My
view is that the more Beijing is belligerent vocally, the less likely military
action will be taken.  When Beijing sounds calm and collected, that's where
action will be imminent.


Gary MacLennan wrote:

> Henry,
>
> This is an interesting report.  What do you think though?  I have
> difficulty in believing that China will launch an invasion. Why now?
>
> Questions like that apart the relationship between the invasion and the
> reform policy is complex is it not?  Are the anti-reformers
> pro-invasion?  Is this a tactic to destroy the reform and the WTO package?
> Surely that will be the outcome of an attack on Taiwan.  Jiang must feel
> trapped between the rhetoric of official policy and his reform
> inclinations. This report would suggest that he is desperately trying to
> hold back the generals while he looks for a rescue package from Taiwan
> courtesy of the USA.
>
> What the military relevance of Kossovo & Iraq has is beyond me.  the
> Americans are reluctant to commit ground troops in a situation where they
> might have to actually fight. Such is the quality of their army.  The PLA
> though would use numbers to overwhelm the enemy.
>
> regards
>
> Gary






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