Charles Brown CharlesB at SPAMCNCL.ci.detroit.mi.us
Wed Nov 22 11:02:21 MST 2000

>>> E.C.Apling at btinternet.com 11/19/00 03:49PM >>
In any case - of course the climate is changing - it has been in a state of
flux every since ANY records began and before;  the argument is not about
the fact of change, but how reliable are forward predictions, which of
possible factors driving change are the most important at the present time
and for the next forseeable period, and what effects are forseeable changes
in climate expected to cause.

On all of these questions the scientific jury is still out - and will be for
decades to come.  In the meanwhile, what's the point in joining the


CB: How about on the basis of preparing for multiple contingencies , including the
worst case scenario ?  In other words, in any situation where several possible results
may come about, a rational approach is to prepare a plan of action for all
contingencies, including especially the worst case scenario.

For example, in a battle, there may be some uncertainty as to the enemy's troop
strength. It may be 10,000 troops or 50,000 because of conflicting intelligence
reports. The commanders may make alternative strategies to deal with each contingency,
AND if no information comes to resolve the conflict in intelligence, they use the
strategy for the worse case scenario.

Similarly here, given the uncertainty and conflicting scientific reports, we must at
least prepare a strategy for humanity in the worst case scenario, i.e. the scenario
that there is global warming due to human use of fossil fuels.

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