on predictions

Jim Farmelant farmelantj at SPAMjuno.com
Sun Apr 29 09:09:50 MDT 2001

On Sun, 29 Apr 2001 10:04:42 -0400 "George Snedeker"
<snedeker at concentric.net> writes:
> in AFTER MARXISM, Ronald Aronson points out that nun of Marx's 172
> predictions actually happened. it is of course true that we would
> have to
> look very closely at what Aronson is calling Marx's predictions.

I would wonder about that too, since it seems that Marx got most
of the big things right as in his predictions concerning the
growing concentration of capital, the intensification of the
boom-bust cycle with ever bigger booms, followed by larger
busts (true up to the 1930s), the growing importance of the
class struggle between capitalists and workers etc.  Also,
we may wish to keep in mind that with all of the current talk
concerning globalisation, Marx had predicted in the Communist
Manifesto in 1848, that capitalism would lead to globalisation -

"The bourgeoisie has, through its exploitation of the world market, given

a cosmopolitan character to production and
consumption in every country. To the great chagrin of reactionaries,
it has drawn from under the feet of industry the national
ground on which it stood. All old-established national industries have
een destroyed or are daily being destroyed. They are
dislodged by new industries, whose introduction becomes a life and death
question for all civilized nations, by industries that no
longer work up indigenous raw material, but raw material drawn from the
remotest zones; industries whose products are
consumed, not only at home, but in every quarter of the globe. In place
of the
old wants, satisfied by the production of the country, we find new wants,
for their satisfaction the products of distant lands and climes. In place
of the old local and
national seclusion and self-sufficiency, we have intercourse in every
universal inter-dependence of nations. And as in
material, so also in intellectual production. The intellectual creations
of individual
nations become common property. National one-sidedness and
become more and more impossible, and from the numerous national and local
literatures, there arises a world literature."

"The bourgeoisie, by the rapid improvement of all instruments of
production, by
the immensely facilitated means of communication, draws all, even the
barbarian, nations into civilization. The cheap prices of commodities are
the heavy
artillery with which it forces the barbarians' intensely obstinate hatred
of foreigners to
capitulate. It compels all nations, on pain
of extinction, to adopt the bourgeois mode of production; it compels them
introduce what it calls civilization into their midst,
i.e., to become bourgeois themselves. In one word, it creates a world
after its own image. "

> a recent
> book, Wallerstein suggests that capitalism is running out of cheap
> labor and
> that this will lead to a crisis in the system over the next 50
> years. I
> guess he forgot about most of Africa and half of Asia. and of
> course, 100
> things will take place which are left out  of the current map of
> capitalism.

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