Crisis of world capitalism: Core-periphery inqeuality

Xxxx Xxxxx Xxxxxx xxxxxxxx at xxxxxxxxxxx.xxx
Tue Jan 9 17:07:32 MST 2001



I am forwarding this to the list. It is a useful summary of number of
crises facing the world economy since the 1970s, written from a world
systemic perspective. Ignore the part on Tom Kemp though. He is part of
a discussion on the specifics of US economy (whether its growth is
exogenous or endogenous etc..)

comradely,

Xxxx

---------
Regarding Kemp, I think he is off the mark because core capital,
especially
that of the US, had been de-industrializing since the 1950s.   I don't
think
there is a "classic" form of recovery that is, by Kemp's implication,
"internal."  As for the seventies recession, it hasn't ended, and
regarding
its relation to deindustrialization, it is as though Kemp as the tail
wagging the dog.  The global down turn intensified the need for core
capital
to move abroad, and prior deindustrialization, especially product-cycle
changes in East Asia, contributed to make that possible.

Regarding the East Asian crisis, it may be seen as part of the ongoing
downturn or B-phase.  It can be compared to the 70's downturns, as Soros

implies, as a fulfillment of the core de-industrialization process.  But
I
also happen to believe that there are other key interstate changes
occurring
during the 1970-present era, including the proliferation of the
mafioso-like
tactics pursued by the US to preserve its hegemony (the effect of which,

given the structural transformations of the world-economy since 1945,
acts
like a lever toward the formation of a world-empire -- see Negri and
Hardt,
2000).  This would include, besides instigating wars (Bosnia, Gulf) and
cold
war escalation that have the same effect, the Structural Adjustment
Policies, which, in furthering de-industrialization, have likewise
caused
economic-financial chaos in those recipient "industrializing" (East
Asia) or
"de-industrializing" (Russia) semi-peripheries which in turn has
resulted in
massive capital flows back to the safe shores of US markets, inflating
US
share prices, and increasing the US take of global capital before being
sent
abroad again back into those recipient areas to purchase goods at
consequently greatly deflated prices.

Soros may correctly judge that the limits to those capital flows have
been
reached for a time.  Which is why he supposes things must get worse
before they get better, i.e. there must be more deflationary chaos in
the (semi) periphery so core capital can go back to purchase (invest) at
lower prices. If so, he seems to suggest that de-industrialization and
the programs of its promotion, are nearing the apex of their maximum
effect (at least in the
short to run of 5-10 years).  And it may be that we are in a classic
5-year
downturn at the end of this process with recovery coming in, say, 2004.
If
Wallerstein is accurate, the following recovery would mark the start of
a
25-30 year upswing not seen since the 1945-70 period.

Elson E. Boles
Assistant Professor, Historical Sociology
University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma
2108 S. 19th St.
Chickasha, OK 73018

--

Xxxx Xxxxx Xxxxxx
PhD Student
Department of Political Science
SUNY at Albany
Nelson A. Rockefeller College
135 Western Ave.; Milne 102
Albany, NY 12222



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