Experts Discuss Looming 'Resource Wars'

Mark Jones jones118 at SPAMlineone.net
Thu Jun 7 00:40:19 MDT 2001



By Nikola Krastev

One of the consequences of globalization is the increased demand for
resources, especially energy. The U.S. government's new energy policy
proposal is only one of the attempts to address an anticipated energy
crisis, though the problem is global in dimension. A panel of energy experts
in New York City discussed recently how international developments have
affected countries' needs for more energy and water supplies.

New York, 28 May 2001 (RFE/RL) -- A U.S. expert on energy and politics says
in a new book that the growing demand for energy supplies is a source of
looming confrontation among the world's powers.

Michael Klare, a U.S. expert on world policy issues, makes his case in a
study entitled "Resource Wars: A New Geography of Conflict." In it, he
points to the oil-rich Caspian Sea region as a typical region of growing
confrontation, in this case between Russia and the United States.

In an interview with our correspondent, Klare says the United States and
Russia are now establishing greater military contacts with countries in the
region, which he argues can be a source of future instability.

"If things proceed the way they have been -- which is, the both sides view
this as zero-sum game of competition -- I think, it's likely to be more
disorder and instability in the region and periodic crises. Because both
sides currently -- that is, the American-supported side and the Russian
supported-side -- are building military alliances with local countries.
They're providing military aid, arms transfers, other forms of military
involvement. And I think they're both proceeding from a competitive
confrontational stand. And I think if that proceeds that way, we will see
more conflict in the area."

Klare participated in a panel discussion on energy policy issues organized
last week by the Council on Foreign Relations, a New York-based think-tank.
Other participants in the panel emphasized the close relationship between
global energy resources and water supplies, and how water can become a major
factor for regional instability in various parts of the world. Sandra Postel
is director of the non-governmental Global Water Policy Project. She said:

"We are about to enter what, I would say, is a really unprecedented period
of water-stress -- globally -- that we are not yet [prepared] to adequately
deal with."

Among factors helping to create increased energy and water demands, the
panel participants cited the so-called "consumption revolution,"
urbanization, and global climate changes. The consumption revolution is a
process during which those people in developing countries who acquire more
wealth try to duplicate the lifestyle in the developed world. The trends in
urbanization clearly show that in the next 25 years two-thirds of the world
population will inhabit large urban areas. Reported global climate changes,
Postel says, are leading to disproportionate distribution of rainfall and to
the expansion of arid lands.

"Countries in this category of water stress simply cannot mobilize enough
fresh water to meet all of the food needs, and all of the industrial needs,
and all of the household needs of their citizens. What they typically have
to do at some point is [to] import water indirectly in the form of grain.
Grain is the currency by which water is traded in large quantities around
the world. It's not by tanker, it's not by pipeline, it's through the
international grain market."

For example, Postel says Egypt, a country with a large mass of fertile land,
needs to import 60 percent of its grain because a lack of water prevents it
from providing enough food domestically.

A map of contested water-resource zones shows that most major water systems
in arid or semi-arid areas are shared by two or more countries and are a
potential source of conflicts. These include large river systems such as the
Tigris and Euphrates, shared by Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, and the Amu
Darya, shared by Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Panel participants said that, while water will continue to be a major factor
in international relations -- particularly in the developing world -- oil
will continue to dictate strategic policy decisions in the foreseeable
future. Klare tells RFE/RL that vast energy reserves in Central Asia and the
Caucasus have made the region a priority for the United States despite the
area's generally poor progress in post-communist reforms.

"I think in this case this is a national security consideration that's
driving all of this. The United States has to get that oil from that region
[Central Asia] and will make a deal with whatever governments are there in
place that are willing to work with us [that is, the U.S.], like the
government[s] in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan that are far
from ideal with respect to human rights and democratic procedure. And I
think that's a reflection of the view that I write about in my book -- we
[the U.S.] view oil as a security consideration and we have to protect it by
any means necessary, regardless of other considerations, other values."

But U.S. officials also have sought to play a mediating role to help protect
oil supplies. The new administration of President George W. Bush this year
has been active in trying to assist in peace talks between Azerbaijan and
Armenia over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

U.S. oil companies are currently developing some of Azerbaijan's most
promising offshore oilfields in the Caspian Sea, and Washington is eager to
secure safe transportation of Azerbaijani crude to world markets through
Georgia and Turkey.

Some analysts, however, downplay the significance of the Caspian-basin oil
reserves for the United States because of their remoteness and internal
instability in the region. Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy consultant and a
participant in the panel, says that no Caspian oil will feed U.S. markets.
Rather, she says, it will flow to Europe and possibly to Asia.






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