Situation in Argentina

Les Schaffer schaffer at SPAMoptonline.net
Fri Mar 30 17:58:47 MST 2001


[ bounced from Nestor -- we're filtering posts with given headers
which are related to the current doubled posts. Nestor's posts will be
temporarily caught in that web. Les]


En relación a Re: Forwarded from Nestor (Adolfo Gilly),
el 30 Mar 01, a las 18:15, Johannes Schneider dijo:

> Bourgeois press here in Germany has been speculating about a major
> re-alignment of political parties in Argentina: there might be a
> formation of a new (parliamentary) majority around Cavallo
> consisting of Cavallo's own party, parts of the UCR, FREPASO and
> followers of Menem and Ruckauf. Such a new alliance could
> successfully back Cavallo in the next presidential elections.

What has happened, to put it simply, is that the representatives of
the petty bourgeois (or intellectual workers, have it the way you
prefer) in the FREPASO coalition have been thrown away as an used
prophylactic.

The FREPASO has split, and the hard kernel of the party of dependency,
so to call it, is rallying to Cavallo who, of course, is a s.o.b. but
is more intelligent than López Murphy. Some speculation has been going
around that López Murphy's "shock" was used to make Cavallo's upsurge
look a salvation. I don't personally believe that.

Cavallo has begun by winning time. His two basic measures (a tax on
cheques - checks?- and the raising of a few customs tariffs) look like
a "departure" from usual neoliberalism, together with his braggard
saying to the banks that the Argentinean state would not take loans at
the current rates any more. What he did here was to act as a
POLITICIAN of the ruling class, disciplining the class itself, and not
as a TECHNICAL MANAGER, who usually just cater to the desires and
whims of the class.

He has thus generated an expectative which forced the union centrals
to postpone the mass strike that was gathering momentum. The mood of
general population has made it advisable to show that it is not in the
interest of the workers to stop anyone, not even Cavallo, in the task
of solving the crisis.  But nobody dreams of an actual "conversion" of
Cavallo, who will most probably unleash the forces of Hell on us
within a short time. His computations may imply that he could attempt
to wait up to the elections, but this does not mean that the
"coalition" around him will give him any vote. In fact, it is the
other way round, if he succeeds in finishing the crisis, then the
coalition will get some votes.


> Is this just wishful-thinking of the imperialist press or is it
> there any real base for such speculations?

Not exactly. The gathering of many criminals does not make for the
town to vote for Al Capone as major. The remaining side of the Alianza
will drift away from its traditional leadership and will find some way
to an alliance with the unions. This may take some time, and Cavallo
may buy that time, but I doubt that a massive support comes for the
Alianza in power (that is, the alliance of the blood suckers) when the
voting comes. On the other side, the elections are not presidentials,
and the Parliament has crippled itself further more by giving Cavallo
full powers and stomping on the Constitution they created themselves
in 1994.  So that these elections are more a means to organize than
anything else.

> In the latter case: what's about the opposition forces to such a
> policy?

They remain the same: the union centrals, partly -this may be wishful
thinking- the military, and a coalition of Left and Peronist Left
leaning parties that is beginning to take shape around Father Luis
Farinello, a Third World priest who is beginning to create a new pole
of political action.

We shall see. Hope this is good enough, and please make any questions
you want.  I am writing in haste.

Néstor Miguel Gorojovsky
gorojovsky at arnet.com.ar







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