Submission to the Cabinet Office

Mark Jones mark.jones at tiscali.co.uk
Mon Sep 17 03:25:53 MDT 2001


Henry, Anthony

If Henry is right then there won't be a war or an oil price-driven slump. I
think he is wrong, but time will tell.

Pteroleum is a highly finite, non-subtitutable energy resource. Depletion
is a physical fact, not an economic one.  The evidence is out there.
Trotsky it was who said: 'You may not be interested in the war, but the war
is interested in you.' The same thing applies to petroleum. You may delude
yourself that there is no energy crisis, but it is there, all right. You
are not interested in it, but it is interested in you, Manhattan q.v. It is
the defining reality of the era, and this was and is one of its defining
moments.

Anthony, the alternatives to oil that you mention (geothermal, windpower
etc) are laughably, preposterously unreal. They simply have no bearing on
the underlying, grim reality. Alternatives would not allow urban industrial
society to continue. In any case, it's much too late in the game for that.
Capitalism has fucked up, and the bill has come in.

They are therefore not alternatives. Capitalism has long ago entered a
historical impasse from which there is no escape and for which there will
now be be no resolution short of war and revolution. Bush, for all his
frailties, understands this: has family business has been involved in oil
and Afghanistan for more than a generation. They know how serious the
underlying problem of depletion is. That is why they are so determined to
redraw the geopolitical map. The US and Europe must have Persian Gulf and
Central Asian oil or their economies will collapse and millions *more* will
die. Imperialism can never abandon the Persian Gulf and survive. The
problem now is to find a way to stay there, and *still* survive. In my 1995
novel Caviar I described how to export nuclear warheads from the ex-Soviet
Union. It was easy to do, so it must already have been done.

The West needs Kazakh and Caspian oil, as well as Saudi and Iraqi oil.
Without it, Henry will be writing about the laws of supply and demand by
candlelight. Who is going to make the pipelines safe now, and at what cost,
when any fool can park a white van under Brooklyn Bridge and detonate
what's left of New York? Or put a bomb under the Tower of London or the
Eiffel Tower with equal ease?

Mark

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