Forwarded from Einde O'Callaghan (Le Pen)

Louis Proyect lnp3 at
Mon Apr 22 13:57:25 MDT 2002

The fascist candidate Le Pen received a surprise 17,42% (according to
the latest projections) beating the "Socialist" Party leader Jospin into
third place. Jospin has retiored from politics. Arlette Laguiller got
6.05% - below the forecasts but retaining her support from the last
time. Olivier Besancenot, the LCR candidate, got a surprising 4.54%,
much higher than the forecasts. CP leader, Robert Hue, got 3.30%!!!

Jacques Chirac (RPR)  19.65%
Jean-Marie Le Pen ("fascist") 17.42%
Lionel Jospin ("SP") 15.39%
F. Bayrou 6.73%
Arlette Laguiller (Lutte Ouvrière) 6.05%
J. Saint-Josse 5.82%
Chevenement 4.83%
Noël Mamère ("Green") 4,81%
Olivier Besancenot (LCR) 4,54%
A. Madelin 3.76%
Robert Hue (CP) 3,30%
B. Negret (Le Pen's former deputy) 2.44%
C. Lepage 1.82%
C. Boutin 1.21%
Gluckstein (the Lambertiste candidate AFAIK) 0.50%

The vote for the revolutionary left was 11%, more than 3 times the vote
for the CP. The combined votes of the government parties are under 25%,
but Chirac's is under 20%. Taking into account that the turnout was
relatively low for a French election it's quite clear that the
overwhelming majority of teh electorate have rejected bourgeois politics
as it is currently on offer in France. There is an obvious polarisation
in French politics where the centre is being squeezed.

Although Le Pen will probably be hammered in the second round the
struggle between the forces of the revolutionary left and the resurgent
fascists (whose combined vote is greater than that of Chirac) will move
into a new phase. in this struggle the previous abstentionism of LO in
both the struggle against the fascists and in the
anti-capitalist/anti-globalisation movement will have fateful (and
potentially fatal) consequences if it is continued.

Here in Germany there has been an earthquake in the provincial elections
in Saxony-Anhalt. Five months before the the federal elections the
ruling SPD's share of the vote collapsed from 35,9% to 20% (according to
the most recent projection). I haven't seen any reports of the voter
turn-out yet.

The SPD has been ruling as a minority government tolerated by the Party
of Democratic Socialism (PDS) - which developed out of the old East
German ruling party, the SED, although it's now a completely different
political animal - a sort of "leftish" social democratic party.

The full projections from ARD (one of the state-run public service
channels) at 10:46 p.m were:

                                     2002     1998
SPD                                  20.0%    35.9%
CDU                                  37.4%    22.0%
PDS                                  20.3%    19.6%
FDP                                  13.3&     4.2%
Greens                                2.0%     3.2%
Schill Party (right populists)        4,5%      -
Others                                2.5%     2.1%

In 1998 the DVU (one of the German fascist parties) got about 12%
(IIRC), but their parliamentary fraction collapsed in a series of
scandals and they didn't stand this time. At least some of their votes
went to to the right-wing populist Schill Party, which has failed to
make the breakthrough that it was hoping for outside its base in
Hamburg, where it is part of the city government. The rest seem to have
gone to the CDU and the FDP.

The big loser is the SPD, whereas PDS support has remained firm. The
bulk of the SPD's lost votes seem to have shifted directly to the CDU,
which is bad news for the SPD for the federal elections - if you want a
conservative imperialist war-mongering government why vote for the
social democratic/green imitation when you can vote for the real thing,
I suppose somewhat cynically.

I'll post more information and analysis, when I've had a chance to study
the full figures tomorrow or Tuesday.

Einde O'Callaghan

Louis Proyect
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