Forwarded from Anthony (reply to Carlos)

Louis Proyect lnp3 at panix.com
Mon Feb 25 06:47:25 MST 2002


Reply to Carlos regarding Colombia (Subject: To Anthony: "Total War" From:
"Alternative" <alternative at sbcglobal.net> Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2002 17:09:48
-0800)

I can understand Carlos' confusion about Colombia. I doubt if anyone here,
there, or anywhere really understands exactly what is going on. However, I
think that the most important point is bigger than Colombia. The period of
the 'peace processes' is over. That period was the period of the retreat of
the Soviet Union, before it expired. Imperialism thinks it no longer has
any real reason to negotiate peace.

The Russian nuclear arsenal is no longer a chip on the table.

Consensus has not yet been reached within the imperialist ruling classes,
but things are moving - the Europeans favor peace processes, and some kind
of social democratic regime as the outcome - as a balance to US imperialist
hegemony. Europe is steadily losing - In Yugoslavia they lost big time. In
Afghanistan they couldn't even pretend to have an independent position. In
Colombia, the international mediators were led by the French and Italians,
and they were the biggest losers in the end of the peace process. The US
embassy was the big winner.

The European/US split is likely to grow. The US will push the divide by
moving against any and all peace processes - in process now, or proposed in
the future. The peace processes give Europe leverage, war gives the US
leverage.

This is the simplified picture, and all I have time for.

The FARC, is to some extent an 'independent player'. But they understand
very well the game outlined above. As do Hugo Chaves, Fidel, and the PT in
Brazil. The game, from their point of view is to play Europe and the USA
off against each other, and to keep the local bourgeoisie caught in the
middle.

However, at this moment the FARC has overplayed its hand (in my humble
opinion). They have played into the hand of the USA, and into the hands of
Alvaro Uribe Velez. Their strategic blunders are contributing to bringing
the paramilitaries to state power.

New negotiations, if they do occur, will occur under conditions distinctly
to the disadvantage fo the FARC - both on the battlefield, and on the
political field.

Anthony:

PS: I have no desire to contribute to any existing or planned publication
in the United States or elsehwere. This list is it for me. However, it
would be interesting if you would describe for listmembers your plans for
REV. It seems that at least two interesting new left publications have
started in the USA recently: Left Turn and the antiwar newspaper started up
people from the old CP/DSA/LOM mileau. Why do you think another is needed?


Louis Proyect
Marxism mailing list: http://www.marxmail.org



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