The rise of China and my own ahistoric forecasts

Ed George edgeorge at
Wed Jul 24 09:05:11 MDT 2002

Domhnall: 'Mark, What makes you think China is going to overtake the

Don't underestimate the Chinese economy. There are countless sources on
the web, this is from one of them - Nicholas Johnston, 'Feeding the
hegemon may be hazardous to your health' - an account produced for the
United States Air Command and Staff College Air University. The object
of the author is to argue for a policy of 'taming' and 'civilising'
[sic] China; to bring it - from US imperialism's point of view - on
board before it's too late.

'China's economy has grown from virtually nil to an incredible $1.15
trillion in 1999. In unadjusted Gross Domestic Product terms, China is
currently the seventh largest economy and with just a few hundred
million dollars more growth it will pass Italy and the United Kingdom
this year to become the fifth largest economy. This level of growth
represents an amazing feat. However, an amazing thing happens when
purchasing power is factored in. Because a dollar (GDP is measured in US
dollars) goes a lot further in China than in the US, when accounting for
purchasing power parity China emerges as the second largest economy. If
growth continues as expected, the World bank projects China may be the
World's largest economy by 2010-2011.'

Full at: <>

Go to the World Bank, IMF or CIA websites and you will find a mountain
of other statistics along these kinds of lines too.

Now I thought that Mark's post was really fascinating, quite the most
thought-provoking thing I've read in a long time. I'm going to do some
thinking aloud myself (but unfortunately realistically not until the
weekend) and I'm going to argue that we shouldn't OVER-ESTIMATE the
possibility of future Chinese hegemony either. But more on that anon.


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