albatrosrojo2000 at yahoo.com
Mon Nov 4 10:39:47 MST 2002
I appreciate Jose's posting (I think it was him) on
the boycott of Camejo's campaign nationally. But
locally this is not so. In the Bay Are he's
received much coverage, often included (even on TOP of
the listing) of the 3 candidates for Gov, getting
equal space even...this is far different from
other places in the US. In LA he gets almost, but not
quite, as good coverage. A 3rd Party candidate really
couldn't ask for anything better in this country.
Polls everwhere give him from 5 to 10% with better
than than in the Bay Area.
This is true. Camejo had two front page articles in
the Chronicle, one front page article in the LA times
and about 40 mentions and smaller pieces in both
newspapers. The LA times made him a favor banning him
from their debate under orders from Davies. Camejo
got something like 60 interviews that day.
He is a regular on TV and Radio talk shows in Spanish
around the state. He was also endorsed by a number of
well known alternative weeklies like the SF Bay
Guardian who also published a number of articles on
I saw him in at least five or six TV shows in
English-language media and an assorted other medium.
Is not what the third partie sdeserved but certainly
he did even better with the media than Nader in 2000.
My prediction is that in the extended SF Bay Area
(down to Monterey and up through Solano counties east
to Stockton) he'll pass 10%. Maybe almost that
in San Francisco (yes, I predict he'll get LESS in SF
than some other places). We'll see. If he gets at
least 6% in this election, it'll be earth shattering.
If he causes the Repblican Simon to win, it'll be
fireworks of untold proportion.
Comment: Yes, some people do not understand that in
SF the local Demcoratic Machine has more control that
in many other cities. He would get less than in other
parts of the Bay Area there, but it will be more than
10%. Camejo will get at least 10% statewide and about
15-20% in certain areas of the state.
Simon cannot win. He is more than 10% below Davis,
even when polls give Camejo 10%. In order for Simon
to win, Camejo should get something around 28%.
Statistically not possible.
Prediction: Davis 45%, Simon 35% and Camejo 12% with
the rest spreaded among other candidates. This could
be a political earthquake in itself. I don't recall
any sitting California governor ever winning
re-election - or being elected the first time, with
less than 50% of the vote.
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