Fwd: Carnegie Dream scenario: Military occupation w/o regime change

Jacob Levich jlevich at earthlink.net
Thu Sep 19 17:51:13 MDT 2002

>Profile: Carnegie Endowment Proposal to Back Weapons Inspectors in Iraq
>With a U.N. Military Troop of 50,000
>All Things Considered: September 5, 2002
>Iraq: Inspections
> From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Robert Siegel.
>And I'm Jacki Lyden.
>President Bush is considering whether to seek a UN Security Council
>resolution that would set a deadline for Iraq to allow inspectors to search
>for weapons of mass destruction. But Bush administration officials have
>made clear these inspections must be far more effective than earlier
>efforts, which were thwarted by Iraq. A group of policy analysts has come
>up with a new proposal for a UN military force to back any weapons
>inspections. That idea has sparked some interest in Washington, as NPR's
>Michele Kelemen reports.
>If you listen to some of the hawks in Washington, the choice seems stark.
>Either the Bush administration goes it alone, mounting an all-out war to
>topple Saddam Hussein's regime, or it sits by as Iraq continues to develop
>weapons of mass destruction. Retired General Charles Boyd argues there is a
>way to force Saddam Hussein to make the choice, by sending in troops to
>back up weapons inspections.
>General CHARLES BOYD (Retired): He can submit to effective, comprehensive
>inspections backed by military force or he can accept an inevitable
>invasion for the purpose of a regime change.
>KELEMEN: Boyd and other analysts, ex-officials and former inspectors
>outlined their proposal in a report just released by the Carnegie Endowment
>for International Peace. That organization's president, Jessica Mathews,
>says this third way or middle ground should appeal to those who want to
>focus on disarming Saddam Hussein but don't support unilateral US action to
>topple him.
>Ms. JESSICA MATHEWS (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace): This
>says, `Sorry, we're not negotiating. There are no off-limit sites. The
>inspectors will go where they want, when they want. They will have
>operational security, which they did not have before. The Iraqis bugged
>them all the time and knew where they were going. And they will have force
>to back them up.'
>KELEMEN: A force of about 50,000 troops and airpower, according to authors
>of the Carnegie proposal. That would be smaller than an invasion force, but
>large enough to establish no-fly and no-drive zones in areas that are under
>inspection. Mathews see is as a largely American force.
>Ms. MATHEWS: We would have air cavalry forces, which is armored helicopter
>mobile troops that could accompany the inspectors that would be strong
>enough to do whatever they chose to do--that is, whether they chose to
>simply protect the inspectors, to protect themselves, to engage if there
>were direct opposition or to disengage.
>KELEMEN: When White House spokesman Ari Fleischer was asked about the
>possibility of such coercive inspections, he would only say the president
>is considering various options.
>Mr. ARI FLEISCHER (White House Spokesman): The bottom line, though, is that
>Iraq needs to live up to its commitments to disarm, not simply allow
>inspectors in, not to resume a cat-and-mouse game, not to put people in
>there in harm's way where Saddam Hussein would again use the powers of the
>state police to rough up inspectors and make their job impossible to do.
>KELEMEN: And Fleischer has repeatedly insisted that regime change is still
>the US policy. Mathews of the Carnegie Endowment says her proposal would
>only work and Saddam Hussein would only be persuaded to accept inspectors
>if that goal were pushed aside.
>Ms. MATHEWS: The crucial part of this proposal is to recognize that the US
>has to make a give, and that give is to say for as long as inspections are
>working we forgo action on a regime change. We may still believe regime
>change is the best preferable outcome. We have felt that way about Cuba,
>for example, for 40 years without doing anything about it. But we would
>have to make that explicit commitment for this to work.
>KELEMEN: That may be difficult for some in the Bush administration to
>accept. The UN Security Council would also have to approve a military
>operation to back weapons inspectors. Mathews believes that council members
>will be interested in this new proposal, if only to stop the US from acting
>alone. Michele Kelemen, NPR News, Washington.
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