Jon Flanders jonathan.flanders at verizon.net
Sun Aug 10 21:30:04 MDT 2003

> And guess what?  US offshore deepwater production has exceed US offshore
> shallow water production for the first time.
> And guess again. All that attention now being paid to Africa?  Oil in the
> offshore of Sao Tome, Principe, the Gulf of Benin?  Yeah, you're right, it's
> deepwater offshore.

Perhaps  growing scarcity has now made expensive deep-water drilling
affordable, even with OPEC pumping flat out? The history of the oil
industry has been boom and bust, most recently illustrated in 1998. You
give the corporations and OPEC too much credit for control of the

> Item 2 Security in the oil fields?  The Navy, which by the way is the single
> largest consumer of petroleum products in the world,  has several battle
> groups on station, there's 150,000 ground forces in the country, the US Air
> Force hanging around a lot, and you know what?  None of the oil companies at
> this time want to  bring Iraqi production on line.  Just that simple.

With these heavily armed and naval/air backed troops dying every day on
the ground in Iraq  civilian oil technicians wouldn't stand much of a
chance. Oil-men want to make money, not die face down in the desert. The
blitzkrieg is over now; the sniper and the rocket-propelled grenade
> Item 3.  No choice, but to let the oil companies use an oil swap to avoid
> royalties?  Not hardly, any number of windfall regulations could be applied
> to the reserve purchase to insure the payments to the US govt.    But
> moreover, I believe you are presupposing that the US govt had adopted the
> Hubbertist line and knows that prices are headed higher because oil is
> getting scarcer.

I am presupposing that the oil men in the administration know that the
black stuff is getting scarce. That's why they want to control Iraq. Of
course wanting in accomplishing are not necessarily the same thing.

>  But if that's the case, the US oil companies would be
> tripping over themselves to get into Iraq, security or no security, and get
> that oil so they could cash in on the cow.

 No they won't be tripping over themselves to get killed. That's the job
of the troops. To kill and be killed until it's safe for drilling and
pipelining.  Some times it is just that simple.

Jon Flanders

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