Green Party, Peter Camejo, California

Eli Stephens elishastephens at hotmail.com
Mon Aug 18 17:04:40 MDT 2003


Jose  wrote:

>Of course alienation from the
>bourgeois electoral farces is likely to be quite common among Camejo
>voters, by normal measures of "likelihood to vote" (a completely voodoo
>statistical category, especially in an election like this), large
>numbers, if not the bulk of Camejo's supporters are likely to be
>excluded from the sample.

I agree (and,  I suspect, the Field poll people would as well) that in this
election, the categorization of "likely voters" is more difficult than
usual. Nevertheless, it is hardly a "completely voodoo statistical
category." For example, if someone hasn't voted in five successive
elections, their liklihood of voting in a sixth is very low. The Field
people get paid to understand these things and, from what someone posted
here a while back, evidently they do a very good job of it.

As far as the more general point, the goal of this poll is not to assess the
sentiment of the people of California, or even the registered voters of
California, but to predict the winner of the election. If Camejo's voters
are alienated from this farce, then they won't show up to vote for him and
he will, as predicted, get 2% of the vote. This is, after all, an election
poll, not a general poll on something like "how the people of California
feel about gay marriage" or some other subject.

_________________________________________________________________
Add photos to your e-mail with MSN 8. Get 2 months FREE*.
http://join.msn.com/?page=features/featuredemail




More information about the Marxism mailing list