Green Party, Peter Camejo, California

Eli Stephens elishastephens at hotmail.com
Mon Aug 18 17:48:42 MDT 2003


John Paramo wrote:

>I assume that if
>attention and interest in a race grew almost 300%, the
>turnout will be higher...?

In this particular case I wouldn't make any such assumption. It's natural
for more people to say they're "paying close attention," after all, I think
there has been more media coverage of the race just in the few days since
Schwarzenegger announced his candidacy than in the ENTIRE Gubernatorial
campaign of 2002. With that kind of saturation coverage, not just on the
"regular" news but also on "Entertainment Tonight," the Jay Leno show, etc.,
yes people are "paying attention." I would say it very much remains to be
seen whether this election turns out to be a "Ventura" (in which lots of
previous non-voters turned out to vote for a non-conventional candidate) or
more of a "regular" election in terms of turnout. But the main point I was
making is that no one can possibly KNOW the answer to this question,
therefore, it's impossible to disprove a prediction about the turnout.

Remember, this is an election where the polls allegedly showed
Schwarzenegger at 45% one day and 22% a few days later (not the same polling
organization or methodology). It's also an election where there have been
fairly dramatic regular developments (Buffett's statement about raising
taxes, the revelation that Huffington paid almost no taxes, etc.) And there
could still be many more such developments (Simon and/or McClintock dropping
out, etc.). So it is fair to say that predictions made today may well be out
the window tomorrow.

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