Green Party, Peter Camejo, California
Jose G. Perez
jgperez at netzero.net
Tue Aug 19 14:09:31 MDT 2003
Eli, the truth is there are differences among the bourgeois polling
experts on how to handle this contest. Thus the polls are being done on
a very different basis. CNN hasn't gone along with the "likely voter"
method, including instead all who say they are registered, and the
network is disclaiming that these are polls, not predictions.
You and I have a somewhat different focus. One of the main points I'm
trying to get across is how bourgeois electoralism *fails to reflect*
the popular will.
Predicting the election outcome isn't quite the purpose of a poll this
early, it is more to track the ups and downs of various candidates so
articles can focus on the horse race rather than issues and policies.
The end result of the series of polls over time is, I guess, predictive,
but that's on the subjective side of things, i.e., what those doing the
polling imagine they're doing.
The *effects* of a poll (and of political polling as generally
practiced) are quite different. For example, when you get to primaries,
where only 10-20% of the voting age population takes part, you can see
very clearly that polls which, at that point, are extremely arbitrary,
are used to determine which candidates get covered and which not, who
are considered serious and who not, who it is worth wasting your time to
go cast a vote for and who not, and thus shape, not predict, the
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