Bipolarism

John Paramo albatrosrojo2000 at yahoo.com
Wed Feb 12 12:55:06 MST 2003


It seems as if the split on Iraq between the
German-Russian-French group, now supported by China as
well on one side and the US on the other have a bunch
of motivations an implications:

-French and Russian interests in the Middle East, oil
contracts with Iraq and Iran; change from
dollarization to Eurorization of the oil commodity;
fear of the US going alone and screwing them up by
taking over and strategic area in which the Europeans
and Russia were working on since the end of Guld War
I; the breaking by the US of the established MO
utilized in the Balkans and Afghanistan (military
partnership on a multilateral basis followed by
protectorates under the UN, but controlled by the
Europeans which seemed to work just fine for the
France, Germany and the Russians but not for the
US...); the fear of the Europeans that the US
unilateralism, if they supported it, will have great
implications to their safety and economic interests
vis-a-vis the so-called Muslim world.

- I think the present rift and confrontation between
the Europeans-Russia and the US is an escalation of
previous confrontations maintained udner wraps and low
key, but that existed all along since the 90s. Whether
that is expressed in Africa, Latin America or Asia,
had been a real exercise of war of tugging. Whether in
Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Central America
etc, the hand of European Socialdemocracy can be seen
trying to undermine US policies and, by reciprocity,
the US undermining governments and economic interests
of the European in the same area.  It seems as if this
low key confrontations are also taking place in other
regions of the world.  This confrontation in the
Middle Easta seems as a confrontation between two
different methodologies to impose imperialist
domination that is escalating: the Europeans more
prone to multilateralism, through international
organizations and trying to share the spoils between
the "old club of imperialist nations" and they
perceived that the US is turning the tables on them
and going alone, protecting its own economic and
political interests at the expense of everyone else.

- It had been some discussions in the circles of
imperialist intellectuals about  the "post-modern"
imperialism of Europe - some necessary but benignly
presented as something that should be "voluntary" and
based on mutual interference and the old imperialist
attitude of the US of maintaining its hegemony through
its overwhelming military superiority.

- The US is playing the card of trying to divide the
NATO and the EU in exchange for the UN card played by
the Europeans which in turn is aggravating the rift.

- In that context, isn't Britain opposing Germany and
France and supporting the US based on short term
objectives of counter-balance the French and Germany
who are the powers of the EU?  Is that is the case,
what repercussions will have Tony Blair's actions with
the predominant political expression of the EU
bourgeoisie - social democracy to which his own party
belongs to? 

- I think that the global antiwar movement has greatly
benefited from the inter-imperialist rift, so much so
that it is now transformed into an objective factor in
the poltiical crisis and it helps to widen the gap
between the US and Europe-Russia.  By the same token,
however, support for one wing of the imperialist
equation - which is starting to develop in a number of
quarters (I just attended a meeting where people
proposed to draft a letter signed by all organizations
to call on France to continue its steadfast opposition
to US imperialism and in favor of peace!) will be
tantamount to become the pawn of one side of the
inter-imperialist dispute. IMO, the antiwar movement
should remian independent, moreover,, should be
opposed to both the US war plans and any interference
in Iraq by the UN.  Hands off Iraq and self
determination seems to me - as proposed by Lou and
some other people - not only a correct apporach, but
also the most realistic one.

- France, Russia and Germany will not change their
approach because what the antiwar movement does since
what is at stake for those governments are their
ruling classes interests and, on the other hand, there
is no guarantee of how far they will go on the present
confrontation. If the antiwar movement is capable of
staying independent of the two imperialist sides in
this and other disputes would not help to heal the
rift between Europe and the US, but actually will help
to put pressure for the crack to became a faultline
which is good for all of us.




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