(fwd from Schanoes) Oil and overproduction

David Schanoes dmsch at attglobal.net
Mon Jan 13 15:32:44 MST 2003


Bishop Berkeley, sorry I don't have the credentials for that rank.

However, to your points.  Current oil consumption is below 80 million
barrels/day, but who's counting?

Yes, the Low PRICED OIL scenario does project consumption at 110 million
barrels a day.    I believe the EIA estimate of the decline in production
from peak is  2027, maybe a little sooner.

I never said the supply was inexhaustible.  The discussion started because I
said the finite nature of the supply was not the propelling force behind the
imperial adventure against Iraq.

Yes, the EIA is a government body subject to mistake, error, and perhaps
prevarication, like any other body, including those paid $20,000 to
pontificate and speculate on the darkness ahead.  But so what?  The BLS is a
govt office, the Census Bureau is one, and so is the FRB.  None of their
work should be summarily dismissed based on their govt. credentials

I'd like to know where you got to "original endowment" number of 1.75- 2.+
trillion barrels.  As I said EIA and other estimates are significantly
higher, unless I read it wrong.

But in any case, the scenario you paint after your discussion of reserves,
revolving as it does around "common sense,"  which should cause every
informed Marxist and quite a few Hegelians to chuckle, points to a scene
directly from an Apocalypse, where oil runs out, gas runs out, we can't grow
food, the rest of the world can't develop, and those who own stripper wells
will have cults surrounding themselves, forts surrounding the stripper
wells, and barbarians at the gate screaming for "the juice, the juice."

Whatever that is, it sure isn't Marxism.


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