On the oil debate was RE: Oil and Overproduction

Gary MacLennan g.maclennan at qut.edu.au
Tue Jan 14 15:44:45 MST 2003


At 08:41  14/01/03 -0500, David wrote:


>  But, if we say the motivation of capital is to gain control of Iraqi
> oilfields, what
>exactly does that mean, and what will it look like.  Will the US occupy the
>fields either directly or through proxies and then assume ownership, again
>directly or through proxies?

Impossible I think to answer this question.  There seems to be a range of
options being discussed in Washington.  A government led by a Mohammed
Karzai type puppet, dressed by some 'haut coutureist' and swanning around
with an American bodyguard is possible.   But I suspect that the example
Afghanistan will be difficult to reduplicate in Iraq.  I think that the
impact of the Iraq invasion will be to forge Arab unity and I am not
willing to dismiss the political power of such a unity.  In Afghanistan it
was the tribal disunity and the absolute awfulness of the Taliban that
prepared the way for America's lightning victory.  Saddam is pretty
terrible and maybe the differences between the Sunni and the Shia will
assist the Americans but I do not think so.  I still stick by my original
analysis that this war will constitute a defeat above all for the Arab
Right - those regimes that have collaborated with the USA most
closely.  They will be shown to be unable to address the problems that
really confront the Arab people. Within this scenario the defeat of Saddam
Hussein prepare the way for a revolt from below which breaks with the
mutual supporting dialectical counterparts of terrorism and collaboration.


The other option of a prolonged military occupation seems to be the one
preferred by the Wolfowitz camp.  This would enable the Americans to
directly threaten Saudi Arabia and Iran. However it would also be even more
provocative.

So I am unsure what the final shape of American intervention will be and I
think they are unsure too.  The Bush regime has failed to secure a
consensus at home or abroad and if and when they attempt to crash through
the reaction among Arabs and throughout the world will be fierce.

regards

Gary


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