MR editorial, Dec. 2002
dmschanoes at earthlink.net
Sun Nov 9 14:47:42 MST 2003
But before we say goodnight...
----- Original Message -----
From: "Louis Proyect" <lnp3 at panix.com>
No, I am not. I think that the consensus is roughly 2050. There is about
1.2 trillion barrels of oil in reserves and the planet uses about 27
billion barrels a year. You do the math. This is not from Hubbert. It is
from Oil and Gas journals. 50 years is a blink of an eye in human history.
You know, I hate being more qualified on this than my opponents-- the point
of the Hubbertist production curve is not that production proceeds smoothly
at fixed rate from beginning to end. Production proceeds along a curve--
Now this should be enough in and of itself to call the fixed resources of
1.2 trillion barrels into question, as rates of extraction and estimates of
reserve masses are technologically, economically, determined categories....
If production proceeds along the curve, and the reserves are known, fixed,
then after the peak is reached, continued production falls off, becomes
physically and economically unviable and the drop dead date is not LP's
simple arithmetic of 1200 divided by 27. The curve predicts the drop dead
date closer to 2017, although some extend it to 2027-2030.
And 50 years is not a blink of an eye in the history of petroleum based
industrial production and transportation-- its about 40%
Anyway, glad to be of help.
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