Failure in Iraq?

Gary MacLennan g.maclennan at qut.edu.au
Wed Nov 12 15:47:14 MST 2003


Hi Charles,

The imperialists are facing two ways on this.  In public and for popular
consumption they have to say that it is business as usual - we will not be
deterred by terrorists etc etc.  You and I and the others on this list know
all that.  However on Iraq the majority of the population (perhaps now a
minority) tend to be ruled by the ideas of the ruling class.  This process
is though being disrupted by increasing confusion among the rulers.

As I keep saying the Rulers must know the world in order to rule it.  They
desperately need to have accurate analysis free from propaganda. The
central weakness of the Bushites is that they assumed that they could by
pass this need with simple military power.  In other words they did not
need to know the world, because their military might could enable them to
re-construct it in their own image. Play God if you like. Hence their
contempt for the CIA and the other intelligence sources that would not
co-operate in the run down to the war.

A section around Bush are still committed to this crash through
approach.  Why use a key when you can knock down the door?

But material reality in the form of an increasingly confident counter
imperialist insurgency and the political impossibility of doubling the
number of troops on the ground, are beginning to assert themselves even
with the Bush Gang.

They are now talking of the "Afghan model" being applied in Iraq.  What is
this code for?  Well I think it means that the Bush Gang may be preparing
to retreat from Iraq under the cover of a civil war.  What though would the
fault lines for such a war be?  If they are Shia versus Sunni, then the
implications of this are very far-reaching for the Sunni nations bordering
Iraq. Nor am I convinced that the Shia necessarily would want to do the
dirty work for American imperialism.  Perhaps the Al-Hakim clan would, but
Sistani is still on the sidelines and Muqtada al-Sadr is in open opposition
to the Americans.

I cannot see an Iraq emerging which is dominated by the pro-American Kurds.

For the moment the Bush mob are like kangaroos trapped in a
spotlight.  That they would contemplate starting a civil war to cover their
bungling in Iraq is nothing short of criminal.  But then that is their
entire strategy in Palestine where they seek to use people like Mohammed
Dahlan to crush the Palestinian resistance to Israeli rule.

Whatever their plans, though, the resistance in Iraq is gaining ground at
incredible speed. The bombing of the Italian compound is yet another heavy
body blow.

Here in Oz I am enjoying listening to current affairs on the radio for the
first time in years.
I abandoned politics in the morning for classical music long ago on the
grounds that I did not want to begin the morning with "those people in the
house".  But the babble of confusion and fear coming out of the right wing
think tanks is music to my ears.

Somewhere Marx once said that the signs of social decomposition and decay
were so marked that 'All in all the times are delightful ' to those  who do
not support the status quo.  In are in that stage again.

regards

Gary


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