FW: [ratch-the-pterodactyl] one chance: life expectancy of industrial civilization
sandinista at shaw.ca
Fri Nov 14 10:56:05 MST 2003
From: Jon Frederick
Thanks to Mike Lee for sharing this.
In his 1996 paper, THE OLDUVAI THEORY: SLIDING TOWARD THE POST-INDUSTRIAL
STONE AGE, Duncan quotes cosmologist Sir Fred Hoyle, "It has often been
said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth,
some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing
high intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have,
exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is
concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no
species however competent can make the long climb from primitive
conditions to high-level technology. THIS IS A ONE SHOT AFFAIR. IF WE
FAIL, THIS PLANETARY SYSTEM FAILS SO FAR AS INTELLIGENCE IS CONCERNED.
The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there
will be one chance, and one chance only." (Hoyle, 1964)
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