[Marxism] The downfall of Shevardnadze

Raymond Chase r_chase at sympatico.ca
Tue Nov 25 12:28:27 MST 2003


 Politics, pipelines converge in Georgia
The downfall of Shevardnadze had its roots in the rivalry between the United
States and Russia, writes MARK MacKINNON

By MARK MacKINNON
The Globe and Mail (Toronto), November 24, 2003
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20031124/UANAL24/International/Idx

It looked like a popular, bloodless revolution on the streets. Behind the
scenes, it smells more like another victory for the United States over
Russia in the post-Cold War international chess game.
Once, the game was played out on a truly global scale, in places such as
Angola and Afghanistan, and was cloaked as a fight between capitalism and
communism. These days, as Russian power and influence have shrunk, so has
the playing field. The fight for influence goes on, but the battlefields
have edged much closer to Moscow -- former colonies such as Kyrgyzstan and
Uzbekistan in Central Asia, and Azerbaijan and Georgia in the Caucasus.
Eduard Shevardnadze used to be one of the chess masters. Yesterday, he was
knocked aside like just another pawn.
The roots of Mr. Shevardnadze's downfall go much further back than Georgia's
disputed parliamentary election, held on Nov. 2, which even his
chief-of-staff has now acknowledged were rigged. They lie to the east, in
the oil under the Caspian Sea, one of the world's few great remaining,
relatively unexploited, sources of oil.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moscow and Washington have been
jockeying to control the route that will eventually take these enormous
resources more rapidly to market in the West. Georgia and neighbouring
Azerbaijan, which borders the Caspian, quickly came to be seen not just as
newly independent countries, but as part of an "energy corridor."
The old, Soviet-era pipeline runs from the Azerbaijani capital Baku north
into Russian territory, then west to the Black Sea port of Novorossisk, in
the process running through the troubled separatist region of Chechnya.
Anxious to build a more secure route, Western investors built a second line
in 1998 from Baku to the Georgian port city of Supsa. Plans were laid for an
even larger pipeline that would run through Georgia to Turkey and the
Mediterranean.
When these plans were made, Mr. Shevardnadze was seen as an asset by both
Western investors and the U.S. government. His reputation as the man who
helped end the Cold War gave investors a sense of confidence in the country,
and his stated intention to move Georgia out of Russia's orbit and into
Western institutions such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the
European Union played well at the U.S. State Department.
The United States quickly moved to embrace Georgia, opening a military base
in the country two years ago to give Georgian soldiers "anti-terrorist"
training. They were the first U.S. troops to set up in a former Soviet
republic.
But somewhere along the line, Mr. Shevardnadze reversed course and decided
to once more embrace Russia. This summer, Georgia signed a secret 25-year
deal to make the Russian energy giant Gazprom its sole supplier of gas. Then
it effectively sold the electricity grid to another Russian firm, cutting
out AES, the company that the U.S. administration had backed to win the
deal. Mr. Shevardnadze attacked AES as "liars and cheats." Both deals
dramatically increased Russian influence in Tbilisi.
Washington's reaction was swift. Within weeks, U.S. President George W. Bush
had sent senior adviser Stephen Mann to Tbilisi with a warning: "Georgia
should not do anything that undercuts the powerful promise of an East-West
energy corridor," he said.
After the energy deals with Russia went ahead anyway, Mr. Mann was followed
by former U.S. secretary of state James Baker, ostensibly an old friend of
Mr. Shevardnadze, who warned the Georgian leader of the need for a free,
fair parliamentary election on Nov. 2.
(No such warning was given in neighbouring Azerbaijan, where outgoing
president Heidar Aliyev handed the presidency to his son in what observers
called a mockery of a vote. Mr. Aliyev had never been as cheeky with the
Americans as Mr. Shevardnadze.)
After the vote in Georgia, a U.S. organization called the Global Strategy
Group quickly released exit poll results that contradicted the official
count, and gave victory to the party of Mr. Shevardnadze's U.S.-educated
opponent, Mikhail Saakashvili. Richard Miles, the U.S. ambassador to Tbilisi
who also happened to be posted to Serbia when Slobodan Milosevic was toppled
by a popular revolt, made the rounds in Tbilisi, lending tacit support to
the opposition's contention that Mr. Shevardnadze had to go.
Yesterday, Mr. Shevardnadze went. The U.S.-backed candidate for president,
Mr. Saakashvili, won the day. And Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov,
after telling Mr. Shevardnadze there was nothing more Moscow could do for
him, flew from Tbilisi to the coastal resort town of Batumi in the
autonomous republic of Adzharia to stir up new opposition.
The game begins again.





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