USDA statistics

DMS dmschanoes at
Tue Sep 30 11:38:24 MDT 2003

From: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Survey

Small Grains

2003 Summary

September 2003

All wheat production totaled 2.34 billion bushels in 2003, up 2 percent
from the last forecast and 44 percent above 2002.  Grain area is
52.8 million acres, up 15 percent from last year.  The U.S. yield is
44.2 bushels per acre, up 8.9 bushels from a year ago.  Levels of
production and change from last year by type are: winter wheat,
1.71 billion bushels, up 49 percent; other spring wheat, 533 million
bushels, up 35 percent; and Durum wheat, 96.6 million bushels, up
22 percent.

Oat production is estimated at 145 million bushels, 4 percent below the
August 1 forecast but 22 percent above last year's 119 million bushels.
The estimated yield is 65.0 bushels per acre, nearly the same as the
August 1 forecast and up 8.3 bushels from a year ago.  Record high yields
are estimated in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska,
and South Dakota.  Harvested area is 2.22 million acres, 5 percent below
the August 1 forecast but 6 percent above last year. Compared with the
August 1 estimate, area harvested for grain declined 20,000 acres each in
Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.

Barley production is estimated at 276 million bushels, down 2 percent
from the last forecast but up 22 percent from last year.  Average yield
per acre, at 58.9 bushels, is up 1.4 bushels from the last forecast and
4.0 bushels above 2002.  The area harvested for grain is estimated at
4.69 million acres, down 4 percent from August but 14 percent above a
year ago.  The harvested area is down from August due mostly to hot dry
weather in Montana where farmers were diverting some barley from grain to

The USDA expects net farm income to achieve a new high this year.  The production
numbers would suggest the output and the income will not be sustained next year,
rather a sharp contraction will occur.

Nevertheless the increase in yields/acre  12-20 percent for these grains is
significant and is the product of tremendous capital inputs during the 90s.


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