[Marxism] Decisive showdown

g.maclennan at qut.edu.au g.maclennan at qut.edu.au
Mon Apr 5 16:36:49 MDT 2004


Marvin,

I think it remains to be seen whether this rebellion of the 
al-Sadr forces is carried through.  He has threatened and 
backed down before.  I think Bremer was backing on him 
retreating again.

Al-Sistani and the al-Hakim clan meanwhile continue to 
collaborate.  The problem is that the future Iraq planned by 
Bremer and co is not the Iraq the Shia want.  Al-Sistani and 
al-Hakim know this, I suspect, but still think what they get 
will be better than life under Saddam.  But al-Sadr seems to 
now represent the Shia street - those who want more than the 
kind of Iraq that the Americans plan.

I was interested to read on the Al Jazeera website, the Emir 
of Qatar's warning of the danger of civil war in Iraq.  Of 
course that is exactly wrong.  The real danger for the Emir 
and the Americans is not civil war but unity between the Shia 
and the Sunni.

What we have seen over the past few days is the dreaded 
senario of Arab unity against imperialism. This is the 
spectre that haunts the imaginary of the British and the 
Americans and their Arab allies. If the current upsurge does 
indeed morph into a generalised resitance then the 
implications for the the "coalition of the willing" are truly 
frightening or wonderful, depending on one's point of view.  
I will go with wondeerful.

regards

Gary

---- Original message ----
>Date: Mon, 5 Apr 2004 09:31:35 -0400
>From: "Marvin Gandall" <marvgandall at rogers.com>  
>Subject: [Marxism] Decisive showdown  
>To: "Marxmail" <marxism at lists.econ.utah.edu>
>
>Today’s Washington Post describes how nervous US authorities 
have provoked a
>showdown with the radical wing of the Shia movement led by 
Moqtada al-Sadr,
>which could decide the fate of the occupation.
>
>American officials had been hoping to contain and diminish 
al-Sadr’s
>influence, while cultivating the Shia leaders who 
participate on the
>US-appointed Governing Council, which will nominally be 
handed political
>“sovereignty” in several months.
>
>But the Post reports Paul Bremer and his aides have become 
alarmed by the
>rapid growth in size and influence of the Mahdi Army, the 
Sadrist militia,
>and “fear it will compete for power after the U.S. 
administration of Iraq
>ends...”
>
>According to the Post, the US decided to test the 
group’s “resolve” by
>closing down its newspaper and arresting one of its top 
leaders, Mustafa
>Yaqoubi, suspected in the murder of a rival cleric last year.
>
>The US gamble has triggered a widespread and violent 
response, and the
>occupation forces are now confronted by what the Post calls 
their “greatest
>fear”: an untenable two-front Sunni and Shia insurgency.
>
>Article available on www.supportingfacts.com
>
>Sorry for any cross posting.
>
>
>
>
>
>
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