[Marxism] Sadr appeal to US public

g.maclennan at qut.edu.au g.maclennan at qut.edu.au
Thu Apr 8 16:04:46 MDT 2004

Hi David 

You replied:

It is unnecessary to predict one way or another whether 
Iraqis can hold
territory at this stage of the insurrection....

David I agree that the analogy with the Text offinsive is 
indeed worth considering.  However I am not at all sure that 
when you talk what about the main "points" of  that offensive 
were that you are not in effect confusing "aims" 
with "results" by simply talking about "points".

You wrote:

At some point, of course, this war will turn territorial, as
it inevitably did in Vietnam.

This is a prediction is it not, David? Moreover one which it 
seems to me is out of synch with what is happening.  The war 
has already turned teritorial.  Ask the Ukrainins who fled 
from Kut or the Bulgarians who were being blasted at Kerbala, 
or the Marines who still cannot capture Fallujah.

Btw the recent spate of kidnappings are best read as an off-
shoot of the present territorial war.

The original point of my post was that I thought and still do 
that the Americans will win this stage of the struggle for 

But as your post points out there will be a big political 
price for that "victory" and as with the Tet Offensive, 
political defeat will turn into military defeat.

I note by the way from the al-Jazeera website that 
negotiations between the Ruling Council and al-Sadr have 
started. The lackeys on the Ruling Council must have been 
given the green light by Bremer to negotiate. The 
imperialists know, just like you and I do, that unity between 
the Shia and the Sunni will spell their defeat.  So already 
they are attempting to get al-Sadr to pull back by promising 
him immunity and honour etc.

This might work and I am inclined to predict that it will. 
But even if it does and al-Sadr is rehabilitated at some 
level, again this will constitute a very damaging political 
set-back for the invaders. Such a prospect is what unites you 
and myself.



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