[Marxism] Forwarded from Anthony (Venezuela invasion)

Louis Proyect lnp3 at panix.com
Mon Apr 19 12:59:47 MDT 2004

Re:  Colombia Senate demands OAS action against Venezuela  From: "Fred 
Feldman" <ffeldman at bellatlantic.net>   Date: Sun, 18 Apr 2004 22:45:49 


"EXCLUSIVE: USA-backed Colombian invasion of Venezuela imminent?"

A few comments on this news and analysis posted by Fred Feldman. The 
United states is definitely laying the groundwork for an invasion of 
Venezuela, but doesn't appear to be in a hurry to attack. The resolution 
by the Colombian Senate is just the most recent step in this direction. 
Colombia's purchase of Spanish tanks, and improvements in its air force, 
are other signs. Tanks and fighter bombers are almost useless in the 
civil war with the FARC and ELN (almost, because tanks can be used to 
guard power installations, bridges, etc.)

They are laying the groundwork because A.) It is increasingly obvious 
that the Venezualan right wing conspiracy, despite its ability to 
mobilize a mass movement of the priveleged, is losing ground by the day 
- priomarily because the mass movement of the poor is so much larger and 
equally well organized and mobilized - to the credit of Chavez. And 
because B) Venezuluan oil in the hands of Chavez will become an 
important weapon that could be directed against the USA in the next few 
years of tightening supply, increasing demand, and sky rocketing oil 

What are slowing down, and may prevent any invasion of Venezuela are two 
primary factors: the US imperilalist's debacle in Iraq, which may make 
US millitary action anwhere else impossible, but has already made them 
much more cautious about even thinking of making a move; and the 
disastrous situation for the Colombian military and paramilitaries.

Despite the retreat of the FARC and ELN in the face of the Colombian 
military's 'offensive', and despite some losses by the FARC and ELN, 
neither organization appears to have suffered a single serious military 
reversal. Most of the losses have come in terms of wholesale arrests (in 
one town every elected official, and a least one member of every family, 
was arrested.) On the other hand, the military is racked by scandals and 
infighting - to the point where different military units have killed 
each other in fire fights. And, the 'peace process' with the 
paramilitaries has gone nowhere, as key sectors of the bourgeoisie are 
unwilling to reward the paramilitaries for their efforts. For the last 
year the paramilitaries themselves have been engaged in a little 
internal civil war, parralel to the civil war among the drug dealers. 
These three little wars - within the military, within the 
paramilitaries, and among the drug dealers probably are just three faces 
of one real war for control of drug dealing. The leader of one of the 
drug gangs was arrested last week at the non-commissioned officers club, 
of which he is a member.

The election of Lucho Garzon as Mayor of Bogotá, continuing the social 
democratic swing in Latin American elections, also bodes no good for an 
invasion of Venezuela. The poor of the cities are being mobilized again, 
even if only to vote - and they are being mobilized on the left. Garzon, 
very cautiously, continues to mobilize the poor, and to put the 
bourgeois politicians on the defensive through ratcheting up the 
pressure in the various corruption scandals touching virtually every 
political faction, but most especially those of Uribe Velez, and his 
nearest main stream competitor Peñalosa.

Whether or not Uribe Velez wants to invade Venezuela to please his US 
sponsors, he is in no position to do so - at least not during this term 
of office. He is barred by the Colombian constitution from a second 
term, but is now actively trying to change the constitution. If he 
succeeds, and then is actually elected to a second term, then an 
invasion of Venezuela might be on the agenda.

All the best, Anthony


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