[Marxism] Behind the recent job growth

Louis Proyect lnp3 at panix.com
Wed Jun 16 07:09:13 MDT 2004


Village Voice, June 15th, 2004
Generation Debt - The New Economics of Being Young
by Jonathan Adams
Kiss Your Career Goodbye
Welcome, new workers, to the world of McJobs

By now, Ondrea Delio should be living the good life. She learned 
multimedia design at Northwestern University, becoming the first in her 
blue-collar Connecticut family to get a bachelor's degree. After nabbing 
that $100,000 sheepskin, she landed jobs with Andersen Consulting (now 
Accenture) and Sapient. She also forked over another $10,000 to study 
Oracle databases at Columbia University.

But then, in early 2001, Sapient pink-slipped her—forcing her to move 
back in with her family, declare bankruptcy, and give back her car. 
Worse, she had to listen to her parents harp on how her degree was 
essentially worthless. She took a $10-an-hour retail job selling women's 
clothing and worked in project management at a liquor company. This 
January she finally found a better job—albeit one with no benefits—as a 
contract IT project manager for a financial-services firm.

Delio, 26, feels like the system conned her—luring her with the promise 
of a secure, upwardly mobile life, if only she worked hard and ponied up 
the money for expensive schooling. "The American dream, for my 
generation—the people who went to college in the mid to late '90s—was to 
go to school, get good grades, work your butt off, get internships. And 
eventually you land in a kickass company, you work 70 or 80 hours a 
week, and you make great bonuses," she said. "It feels like everything 
you've worked for and everything you've sweated for four-plus years has 
been ripped out from under you."

Delio's timing was impeccably bad—she left school just as the tech 
bubble was about to burst—but her story underscores a broader reality of 
today's job market for newcomers. Choosing a career path is a 
high-stakes gamble on where the jobs are likely to be two or four years 
down the road. Guess wrong and you could end up at a dead-end retail or 
fast-food job, slowly climbing out of a deep, dank hole of debt. Guess 
right, and you'll enter a job market that offers less security than ever.

May marked the nation's third straight month of job growth, but the 
long-range view is mixed. For the best handicapping, you want the job 
market equivalent of a Las Vegas line-maker, the Bureau of Labor 
Statistics in Washington, D.C. Every couple of years officials there 
release the mother of all occupational outlooks, the 10-year employment 
projections. The most recent one, published in February, projected 21.3 
million net new jobs through 2012. Construction jobs should keep growing 
(expect to see a million more by 2012). The strongest service-sector 
bets are in education, health care, and state and local government. The 
single best choice may be to join the ranks of registered nurses 
(623,000 new jobs).

But here's the depressing news: Of the top 10 occupations with the 
rosiest projections, seven are by and large poorly paid McJobs: retail 
(596,000 new jobs by 2012), customer service (460,000), food preparation 
(454,000), cashiers (454,000), janitors (414,000), waiters and 
waitresses (367,000), and nursing aides (343,000). And the BLS admits 
its numbers don't distinguish between full-time jobs with benefits and 
part-time or temp work. In other words, there will be plenty of jobs, 
but far fewer careers.

It's the rare kid who goes to the website to navigate the maze of job 
data (it's at bls.gov, under "Employment Projections"). But the gist 
trickles down through the media and career counselors, and through the 
anecdotes of friends and relatives. The result? A rapid drop in 
enrollment at Web, tech-related, and manufacturing programs, and a 
stampede into programs for accounting, education, and especially 
nursing. Some of the cheaper nursing programs, at technical schools, 
already have one- to two-year waiting lists, and programs elsewhere can 
cost $60,000.

What if the widest gate holds no allure for you? Told about the 
projected boom in health care jobs, Delio, for one, said she'd never 
consider the field—"I'd be puking up my guts daily"—and is disturbed by 
industry problems such as high malpractice premiums and HMO mismanagement.

Take heart, Delio: The news in other sectors isn't all bad. The BLS 
projects more than a million new jobs in business and finance by 2012, 
with another million in computer and mathematical occupations.

Still, many young Americans remain deeply disillusioned about their 
prospects. Take Jessica LaPlante, of Green Bay, Wisconsin. She worked in 
journalism for several years, but was given the boot from a local paper 
in October 2003. Now she's training to be a paralegal. She looks around 
at her fellow students—many laid off from local manufacturing and 
white-collar jobs—and wonders if she'll have to change again. "That's 
the fear," says LaPlante, 25. "I mean, is there any job or any career 
you can rely on? Aside from health care, I'm not hearing a whole lot of 
optimism as far as job security goes."

Young people like LaPlante know full well that part of the problem is 
cyclical—that the economy has gone through a particularly nasty 
downturn. What's striking is the bleakness of their longer-term view. "I 
don't feel there's enough job creation to sustain the American way of 
life that we've been enjoying," says LaPlante. "You can go to school, 
get professional training, excel at your studies, have professional work 
experience. You can come out and have a degree. And you still have 
trouble finding a job."

Tell it to the kids not fortunate enough to get a degree. Aside from 
construction gigs, the government predicts non-service-sector jobs will 
continue to stagnate. That means more manufacturing workers will have to 
take lower-paid McJobs with few if any benefits, and often no union 
protection. Their best hope is training or retraining for more 
specialized jobs in areas like radiography.

One such worker is 29-year-old Jeff Olson, of Two Rivers, Wisconsin. 
Laid off when his employer moved its aluminum cookware plant to Mexico 
last August, he could at first glance be a poster boy for the losers in 
the modern economy. Far from it. He says he was bored anyway, and had 
mastered every part of the assembly process. Now, under a federal 
program that helps retrain laid-off manufacturing workers, he's back in 
school, and plans to start training this fall in biomedical electronics. 
He looks forward to fixing medical equipment in hospitals, doing 
something more challenging and different every day. "To be honest, it's 
probably one of the best things that ever happened to me," said Olson. 
"I was going to go back to school anyway. This took me from point A to 
point B in less time than it would have taken me if I had done it all by 
myself."

But Olson knows he's in the minority. He estimates that 40 percent of 
his former co-workers are still unemployed or have taken lower-paying 
jobs, and he knows of at least a couple for whom the layoffs were 
devastating. What makes him different? He's clearly ambitious and 
bright, but he's also highly flexible, with no family to support. He's a 
labor economist's model 21st-century worker: smart, retrainable, mobile.

In a rapidly shifting job market, the best strategy may be to focus on 
what sparks your interest—and then hedge your bets against the BLS 
projections. "You don't want to train in something that you're not that 
interested in in the first place, that you're struggling to get through, 
and then it backfires on you and you don't even get a job out of it," 
says Jim Zephirin, senior counselor at the Milwaukee Area Technical 
College. "Holy cow, how bad is that, you know?"

-- 

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