[Marxism] More on what's next in Iraq.

g.maclennan at qut.edu.au g.maclennan at qut.edu.au
Fri May 21 23:30:00 MDT 2004

I have finished my daily trawl through the net on material 
about Iraq.  I am as always heavily indebted to Juan Cole for 
my information, though of course I do not share his liberal, 
pro-meritocrat politcs.

I am in dispute with a friend as to what is to happen now.  I 
tend to think that a Kerry led administration will inject 
more troops in an attempt to win the war, and that what we 
are witnessing at present is merely a kind of lull brought 
about by the exigencies of domestic politics in the USA.

My friend has argued that I am wrong and that America is 
manoeuvering to be asked to leave by the administration it 
has set up.  That he argues will save American face.

I tend not to agree, but am far from certain about my 
position.  It is possible that the UN's Brahimi could cobble 
together a group of Iraqis with more credibility than the 
current crop of stooges in the Governing Council.  But for 
them to ask the Americans to leave would be to expose 
themselves to assasination.

Besides the problem with the get asked to leave scenario is 
that it is too sensible and smart a strategy for the bunch of 
clowns in the White House.  They have been dumb and stupid 
and wrong about Iraq from day one.  Why should they get any 
smarter now?

So I am still inclined to believe that we will see a renewed 
attempt to crash through following the November elections.

Of course it is the worst kind of hubris to attempt to 
forecast the future. Especially as there is an amazingly 
fluid quality about the present situation and almost anything 
is possible.  

Currently the only thing going for the Imperialists is that 
there appears to be at least a three way split in the Shia 
with Muqtada occupying the pro-theocratic and anti-American 
wing, while being opposed by the pro-American al Hakim 
faction and with al Sistani vacillating in the middle, but 
inclining towards the invaders by instinct.  However such is 
the advanced state of decay of the occupying forces at a 
military and political level, that al Sistani might be 
tempted to throw his lot behind the Muqtada push.  Should he 
do so then it will be all over with the Coalition of the 
Willing and their running dogs.

Why though the continuinuing attacks on Muqtada's army?  
Partly I think because Bremer & co do not know what else to 
do.  Six weeks ago in all probability the al Hakim clan gave 
them the go ahead to take out al Sadr.  That coupled with the 
disaster in Fallujah, completely derailed the Occupation.  
The Abu Ghraib scandal provided the finishing touch.

Contemplating the disaster that is the invasion and 
occupation of Iraq, I am inclined to think that all in all 
the times are delightful as Marx once said.



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