[Marxism] THE MILITANT looks at the boom times coming ahead

Steve Gabosch sgabosch at comcast.net
Sun Nov 7 20:13:18 MST 2004


Walter has the position of the Militant exactly backwards in his subject 
line "THE MILITANT looks at the boom times coming ahead"

Actually, the SWP and the Militant say quite the opposite - they see 
decline and crisis, not boom and success.  For example, "... the moves" of 
US imperialism today that "we are witnessing are part of the decline of the 
world’s final empire, which today faces the political and military 
consequences of its imperialist course at the same time it is entering its 
greatest economic crisis since the 1930s
."

This is from the Nov 2nd Militant, which printed some excerpts from a 2002 
SWP resolution coming out in an upcoming New International.  According to 
this SWP resolution - and for that matter any other writing that has been 
in the Militant for some years now - US imperialism is headed for 
increasingly catastrophic times ahead, not a boom.

In that regard, the resolution has an interesting section discussing 
Trotsky's 1923 analysis of the long-term curve of capitalist development, 
where he discussed theories of the academic economist Kondratiev, who, 
according to the SWP resolution,

"... did employ a useful metaphor in describing this long-term curve, whose 
character he did not understand. He, and his rediscoverers and vulgarizers 
today, speak of the slow beginnings of recovery as “spring”; sharply rising 
segments as “summer”; the stagnant opening of a downward segment as 
“autumn”; and the more sharply downward segment as “winter.”  We’ve been in 
autumn since the mid-1970s; now one of capitalism’s infrequent long winters 
has begun."

- Steve

here is the link to the Militant article and a couple more passages:
http://www.themilitant.com/2004/6840/684050.html

excerpts from "Capitalism’s Long Hot Winter Has Begun - U.S. rulers 
confront sharpening political, military conflicts,
as imperialism enters opening stages of a world depression.":

If you simply add up figures on economic output, arms budgets, and 
conventional and strategic weaponry, then U.S. imperialism is the strongest 
power in world history, towering above its closest rivals on every front. 
But that’s a snapshot lifted out of time as well as political and economic 
context and direction of development. The course we’ve been describing here 
is that of an imperialist power that is weakening vis-à-vis its ability to 
stabilize a world in which the lives of hundreds of millions of restive 
toilers in semicolonial countries are marked by the increasing turmoil, 
want, and disease produced by the world capitalist system itself. An 
imperialist power less and less able to handle the political challenges it 
cannot but create, because it is a power that cannot stabilize the global 
capitalist economy, the effects of which keep coming down on workers and 
farmers worldwide. A power that must bear a disproportionate load in 
policing the planet for imperialism in one crisis of its own making after 
another, from the Balkans to every corner of the semicolonial world. One 
that has not achieved its goals in a single major war since 1945. One that 
now, after supposedly winning the cold war “without firing a shot,” is no 
longer exempt from attacks on its home soil.

An imperialist power in its heyday is able to bend regimes to its will. To 
order “allies” to turn to. To crush resistance by toilers in the colonial 
world. It has the economic reserves to stabilize its international 
currency. That is not the situation of U.S. imperialism today, however, and 
has been less and less so since the mid-1970s. Instead, the moves we are 
witnessing are part of the decline of the world’s final empire, which today 
faces the political and military consequences of its imperialist course at 
the same time it is entering its greatest economic crisis since the 1930s
.

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