[Marxism] Recession in the works?

Jon Flanders jonathan.flanders at verizon.net
Sun Nov 28 19:47:08 MST 2004


What do you think about the possibility of a serious US recession in the
immediate future?

I think that a serious argument can be made that the ruling class wants
one sooner rather than later.

Firstly there is the nonchalant lack of concern for the declining dollar
evinced by Treasury Secretary Snow. He surely knows that if the dollar
continues its swoon currency flight will force higher interest rates and
a punishing cascade of consequences which will include consumer
bankruptcies and layoffs in the still decisive auto and construction
industries which will then bring the Asian import boom to a screeching
halt.

Secondly, it would of course be desirable to have a recession, if there
is going to be one, early in the Bush second term. The Republicans would
then have the maximum amount of time to do the serious work of pummeling
the working class and still have time to(hopefully from their point of
view) re-inflate the balloon before the 2008 election.

I can see a number of positives for the ruling class in a recession
scenario. 

Higher interest rates would benefit bondholders. 

High unemployment would facilitate a serious offensive against unions
already reeling from their failed campaign for Kerry.

China's bubble economy would burst, and reduce the growing threat of
Chinese influence and money around the world.

Soaring oil demand would be cooled.

Restive European governments would be chastened further, and have to
take even more measures against their own working classes.

Of course there are dangers that a currency induced recession could turn
into a runaway train. It would also be much harder to pull off the
privatization of Social Security with a Wall Street bust. But what other
options do Snow and his cohorts have?

Are Walmart's holiday sales a straw in the wind? News reports indicate a
disappointing consumer turnout over the Thanksgiving holiday.

Jon Flanders







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