[Marxism] On Lebanon and Syria

Pieinsky pieinsky at igc.org
Thu Mar 10 06:12:12 MST 2005

The below is part of a recent email to me from Muhammad Abu Nasr, who used
to be on this List.  As usual, very interesting.



The demo in Beirut was indeed impressive.  Arabic sources are saying 1.5
million - the biggest demo in Lebanese history ever.  The US media put the
figures at one-third that, but couldn't minimize it very far.

It all makes Bush's song and dance about "bringing in democracy" totally
absurd when clearly the "tyranny" you're bent on throwing out can arouse
huge demos and the "democratic forces" can't.

I really don't think oil has much to do with the US game in Syria, which is
very serious by the way.

There are lots of aspects of interest.

This time Bush is doing it Kerry's way.  He's got the support of the French
because the French are Lebanon's former colonial masters (and Syria's too)
and still think of themselves as the patrons of the Maronite minority.  So
here the Bush administration can cobble together an international colonial
concensus for intervention.  And they're really working at it along all the
old colonial ways.  They reported yesterday that the head of the Maronite
Church, Sfeir - I don't know if he's a bishop or cardinal or patriarch or
what - was invited to Washington by Bush, so he's going of course, willing
to play the colonial pawn role that his coreligionists pioneered back in the
19th century.

And in the process obviously the US is again betting on being able to play
sectarian games, as they've been doing in Iraq.

The US strategy right now is basically to crush any reasonably large Arab
state which can constitute any sort of power in the region.  This is called
"the spread of democracy."  So first was Iraq, because it was the most
independent, next Syria, and after that Egypt and Saudia.  The whole episode
in the Sudan was along the same lines as well, though there the Zionists
also aim to assert some control of the headwaters of the Nile.  Anyhow,
since the Bush-Zionist team require total abject obedience, they can't abide
any independent states with any independent strength.

Syria-Lebanon is "Israel's" most significant problem - far more immediate
than Iran - so Syria is definitely next.  And the door to Syria is Lebanon.
Not just geographically on the ground but politically.  Bush can probably
manage to invade Lebanon to "protect" it and he might not even need to use
any or many US troops; the French will probably oblige and the UN is likely
to provide cover or the EU.  Bush can't go directly for Syria with his whole
army bogged down in Iraq, but he can manoeuver with the help of the French
and get into Lebanon.  And that would mean putting the "Israelis" in Lebanon
at least the Mossad.

Damascus has been doing a lot apparently to placate the Americans;
reportedly closing Palestinian offices that the US calls "terrorist" and
telling representatives of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad to take extended
vacations out of the country.

Meanwhile, of course, Syria has said it will be pulling out of Lebanon.

All this has emboldened Bush, the Zionists, the French and the EU and so
Bush is now insisting on total Syrian departure, right now, etc., or else
sanctions, military pressure, UN pressure, etc.

But the Americans are forgetting that the folks on whom their hopes ride in
Lebanon - the Maronites - were almost crushed by the Lebanese left and
Palestinians in the 1970s and it was Syria that came in and saved their
butts - to keep the Zionists from moving in and presenting Syria with a war
it couldn't avoid.

So the Syrian leaders are not to be taken at face value as they appear to be

Basically, if Syria pulls out, the Americans, French, and Zionists can come
rushing in - just in time for the Lebanese civil war to begin round II!

My contacts tell me that people in the Arab world are already volunteering
to fight in the coming Lebanese Civil War against the US and its local
proxies.  If Syria leaves and the US encourages its Maronite oligarch
friends to seize total power again, there will be civil war again, and the
Americans once again will be searching for scapegoats to blame for "bad
planning" when they're sucked into that.

The assassination of Hariri - which the US and/or the Zionists did - was
aimed at pushing the Lebanese Sunnis into the anti-Syrian camp.  But I don't
think that will last all that long if Syria leaves; the Sunnis won't be
happy with US-French Zionist control.  And any fundamentalists out there
will help the Sunnis remember  whose side they need to be on.  Besides, the
demo yesterday shows where the bulk of the population stands.

So basically, to me it looks like Bush is about to swagger into a huge trap
that he's virtually forcing the Syrians to leave for him.  As usual, he and
his neo-con expert advisers haven't got a clue.  If the Syrians are forced
out of Lebanon they can say "welcome to the Lebanese civil war" and
meanwhile use their Palestinian cards to turn Mahmud Abbas's smooth sail
into an "Israeli" port into a very rough ride.

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