[Marxism] Experts fear day when oil runs low

rrubinelli rrubinelli at earthlink.net
Thu Mar 24 21:25:19 MST 2005


This is not accurate.  It gives the impression that EIA has endorsed the
Hubbert Peak ideologists when it, and its analysts have not.  On the
contrary,  EIA analyses pretty regularly point out that the problem with
oil production has been rate of return on investment.

We have been through this many times before.  Hubbert's original work,
prior to the heralded 1956 remarks on the coming US oil peak, of which
the original paper is almost impossible, if not impossible to come by (I
asked the head of a Hubbertist web site for a copy of the original
remarks and he said he would "get back to me."  Still waiting.) were
concerned with an approaching depletion of... coal.  Yes, coal was going
to disappear and where would the world be then?

The much publicizied problem's in the industry's replacement ratio
follow a less publicized period of massive capital investment, reduced
costs of production, reduced sales prices, and replacement ratios
averaging 125% for almost a decade.

Current declines in replacement ratios are more accurately viewed as the
product of reduced capital investment by the oil majors, who, awash in
cash, devote more of it to share buybacks than new expenditures in
exploration.  Expenditures that are being made are dedicated to
development of already purchased and booked reserves, thus the
replacement ratio declines while the acutal reserves may increase.

I would suggest that the now quasi-official rumblings about an oil peak
are the equivalent of the misinformation disseminated about the status
of  the social security trust fund-- and with the same purpose, to route
the  money   into particular pockets.

__________________



----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Macdonald Stainsby" <mstainsby at resist.ca>
To: "The A-List" <a-list at lists.econ.utah.edu>;
<marxism at lists.econ.utah.edu>
Sent: Thursday, March 24, 2005 10:36 PM
Subject: [Marxism] Experts fear day when oil runs low


>
> Experts fear day when oil runs low - The Sacramento Bee
>
> http://www.sacbee.com/content/politics/story/12600826p-13455194c.html
>
> Experts fear day when oil runs low
> Recession, famine and war seen if demand outstrips supply.
>
> By Greg Gordon -- Bee Washington Bureau
>
> Published 2:15 am PST Monday, March 21, 2005






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