[Marxism] After Kyrgyzstan: Georgian Putsch Model To Be Applied To Armenia, Azerbaijan

davidquarter at sympatico.ca davidquarter at sympatico.ca
Tue Mar 29 05:58:41 MST 2005


On 29 Mar 2005 at 4:53, Rick Rozoff wrote:


1) 'Wave Of Revolution Rolling Across Post-Soviet
Space': Georgian Putsch Model To Be Applied To
Neighboring Armenia, Azerbaijan
2) Color Yet To Be Determined: Three Azeri Opposition
Groups Meet; Velvet Triad To Be Formed (Cf,
Saakashvili-Burjanadze-Zhvania in Georgia;
Yushschenko-Timoshenko-Moroz in Ukraine;
Bakiev-Kulov-Otunbaeva in Krgyzstan)


1)
http://www.messenger.com.ge/issues/0830_march_29_2005/opinion_0830.htm


The Messenger (Georgia)
March 29, 2005


After Kyrgyzstan
For Georgia, democratic change in other CIS countries
can be regarded as wholly positive


-Several analysts suggested after Ukraine's Orange
Revolution that Kyrgyzstan might be the next contender
to be affected by the "wave of liberation" that
Saakashvili and Yushchenko described back in January
as rolling across post-Soviet space....Given that
Armenia and Azerbaijan have both been mentioned in
this context, this is clearly of importance for
Georgia.
-[G]overnments...have been ousted in Ukraine and
Kyrgyzstan, while democratic steps have been taken in
Moldova, and the possibility of change in other CIS
countries seems all the greater.
-As in Georgia and Ukraine, much will depend on
Western election observers to quickly provide an
objective opinion on the fairness and openness of the
election process.
One important factor here is that the opposition
parties in Ukraine and Georgia were notably
western-oriented, and both Yushchenko and Saakashvili
have expressed their desire to lead their countries
into NATO and the European Union.


The recent upheaval in Kyrgyzstan cannot be described
exactly as a velvet revolution in the mold of the
recent revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, although
there were clearly some similarities, and the
precedent set in Tbilisi and Kiev doubtless played a
part in the events that unfolded in Bishkek.

Several analysts suggested after Ukraine's Orange
Revolution that Kyrgyzstan might be the next contender
to be affected by the "wave of liberation" that
Saakashvili and Yushchenko described back in January
as rolling across post-Soviet space. And although
instability and uncertainty have taken hold of
Kyrgyzstan and it is far from clear what will be the
final outcome there, already some commentators have
turned their attention elsewhere and are speculating
which country will be next. Given that Armenia and
Azerbaijan have both been mentioned in this context,
this is clearly of importance for Georgia.

2003 was a year of elections for the three countries
of the South Caucasus. In Armenia President Kocharian
won re-election in the presidential poll, while his
party came out on top in the parliamentary. In
Azerbaijan, meanwhile, the presidential election was
won by Heidar Aliev's son Ilham. The opposition in
both countries failed, and although election observers
condemned the elections as marred by irregularities,
the results stood. The same was expected in Georgia,
but here the events developed very differently, the
people taking to the streets in protest at the
falsified elections, bringing about the first velvet
revolution in post-Soviet space.

Since then governments relying on the falsification of
elections to ensure their longevity have been ousted
in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, while democratic steps have
been taken in Moldova, and the possibility of change
in other CIS countries seems all the greater.

Many analysts believe that there is a real possibility
of democratic change in Armenia, where the 2003
elections were condemned as fraudulent. The internal
political situation there has changed as a direct
result of the revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, and
many believe that the government will not again be
able to get away with falsifying the elections,
although as German Foundation of Scientific and
Political Development Uwe Halbach notes, "The only
problem in Armenia is that they do not have a
Saakashvili who will be able to mobilize the country
and change it in a peaceful way," as quoted by
Rezonansi. Should Armenia find an opposition leader
behind whom they can unite, this would pose a serious
threat to the current administration.

In Azerbaijan, meanwhile, the various opposition
parties are planning to unite to fight the
parliamentary elections slated for this autumn. Ilham
Aliev, who was able to win the 2003 presidential
election only by manipulating the process, will be
under severe pressure, although, as in Armenia,
whether the opposition will be able to organize
themselves to capitalize on the expected electoral
irregularities remains to be seen. As in Georgia and
Ukraine, much will depend on Western election
observers to quickly provide an objective opinion on
the fairness and openness of the election process.

One important factor here is that the opposition
parties in Ukraine and Georgia were notably
western-oriented, and both Yushchenko and Saakashvili
have expressed their desire to lead their countries
into NATO and the European Union. In Armenia, in
particular, such a western-orientated government
coming to power is made less likely by the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue; but some analysts believe that
the continuing existence of the frozen conflict makes
a velvet revolution less likely.

For Georgia, democratic change in other CIS countries
can be regarded as wholly positive. Following the Rose
Revolution, Georgia was more or less isolated within
the CIS, but since the Orange revolution it has gained
an important ally with similar problems and goals in
Ukraine. Velvet revolutions elsewhere, Georgians hope,
will lead to the creation of more friends.
------------------------------------------------------
2)
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5480266&startrow=21&date=2005-03-29&do_alert=0


Russian Information Agency (Novosti)
March 29, 2005


AZERBAIJAN OPPOSITION PARTIES TO MEET 
Gerai Dadashev


BAKU - Three right-wing opposition parties, Musavat,
the Azerbaijan National Front Party and the Democratic
Party have announced that they will meet in Baku April
10. 

According to a Democratic Party press release, the
parties plan to demand the apprehension and punishment
of the masterminds of the murder of Monitor magazine
Editor Elmar Guseinov, a letup on pressure on the
independent press and a fair election system. 

Meeting organizers also intend to demand that
authorities take real measures to combat corruption
and abolish unemployment in the country. 

The Democratic Party expressed it readiness for a
dialogue with the authorities in order "to hold free
and democratic elections." 

The three parties recently formed a bloc for
participating in the November 2005 parliamentary
elections.









More information about the Marxism mailing list