[Marxism] Immediate History....

rrubinelli rrubinelli at earthlink.net
Sun Nov 20 13:23:50 MST 2005


...or something close to it.  Terribly unsporting to say I told you so,
but I think I told you, or some, so.... a year or two ago, when the
world (and lists) were full of the talk of the decline of US capitalism,
its collapse under the combined blows of China, ASEA, APEC, EU, Southern
Allliances, current account deficits, peaks and near peaks, and
forthcoming peaks in hydrocarbons...

And today?  Federal Reserve and US Treasury announce record currency
inflows into the US in Sept. 2005, pushing the dollar to two year highs
against the yen,  Euro, and sterling.  Net inflows were $101.9 billion,
with $93.4 billion in purchases of US bonds, and $24.6 billion in
purchases of US equities, the largest monthly equity purchase since Feb
2002....

And that ain't all...  overseas central banks portion of purchases
declined from 29% of the total to 12.7%, with mutual funds, investment
banks, hedge funds, corporations picking ulp the rest....

And that ain't all... China's spike in oil consumption, precipitating
much sweat and tears over the inadequacy of remaining oil supplies, has
moderated.  Indeed, it had to since the spike in consumption exceed GDP
growth by some 50%... but wait, as they say on the Ronco Infomercials,
there's more... because China's production of hydrocarbons, thought to
have peaked even before its development has increased by 3% in 2004, and
another 4.4% ytd in 2005, while natural gas production has climbed
19%... all as a result of increased investment....

And there's more...

If depletion of reserves, post-peak, was really upon us, we should see a
spiking in both finding costs, and lifting costs, of the oil majors over
the long-term.  We do not.  ExxonMobil has reduced its finding costs
from $2.75/barrel in 1988 to .44, yep 44 cents, a barrel in 2004.
Replacement rates have met 100% of production for 11 consecutive years,
and this despite ExxonMobil is dedicating more than half of net earnings
to...share buyback rather than increased exploration activity.


rr





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